Can UCF Knights Still Make a New Year's Six Bowl?
Let’s establish that the UCF Knights securing a New Years’ Six bid would take quite a bit of drama to unfold. They have not been eliminated from consideration, however.
If head coach Gus Malzahn and the Knights had managed to knock off Navy, they could have coasted into the Cotton Bowl by winning at USF and then at home in the American Athletic Conference championship game. Instead, after the loss to Navy,
UCF now needs a win at USF and some help from the College Football Playoff Committee to even make the conference title game. That contest would now also be on the road instead of at home.
Here is a quick list of things that likely need to happen for UCF to earn a New Year’s Six appearance for the third time from six seasons:
- UCF beats USF.
- Houston loses to Tulsa or finishes behind UCF in final College Football Playoff rankings along with the Tulane/Cincinnati loser.
- UCF beats Tulane/Cincinnati on the road in the AAC Title game.
- University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA) loses at least one of its two next games.
- Coastal Carolina loses at least one of its two next games.
If all of these things happen, UCF would probably be the highest-ranked Group of Five team, and therefore, earn a trip to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. All the Knights can control at the moment is next week’s game vs USF. A loss there ends any hope of even an AAC Championship game appearance or major bowl bid.
The Knights are a far better team than USF on paper, but that was the case against Navy and for the most part, East Carolina was not the same level team either. UCF was not able to win either of those games and those losses represent why overlooking USF would be a mistake.
Additionally, USF has played some teams close this season, including losing 31-28 to Florida and 28-24 to Cincinnati. Although their 1-10 record – most notably its 0-10 record against FBS teams – helped to define why head coach Jeff Scott was fired on Nov. 6 and special teams coordinator Daniel Da Prato was elevated to interim head coach.
Assuming UCF beats USF, Houston must lose to Tulsa to ensure a conference title game appearance for the Knights. Otherwise, there will be a three-way tie between UCF, Houston, and the Tulane/Cincinnati loser.
That scenario would go to the team ranked the highest in the College Football Playoff rankings. At that point, UCF’s fate in the conference would rest in the hands of the Playoff committee.
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If all of the previous criteria are met, UCF will play on the road versus Cincinnati or Tulane for the AAC crown. The Knights have already beaten both teams, Cincinnati at home and Tulane on the road. The issue?
It is hard to beat a team twice in the same season. If the Knights are able to pull off an AAC title win, they will have done everything in their power from this point. It would then come down to the final College Football Playoff rankings to determine whether or not they will have a chance to play in the Cotton Bowl.
UTSA and Coastal Carolina are the only two teams that may steal a bid from UCF at this point, although Boise State may have an outside chance as well. UCF could certainly still jump all of those teams in the rankings even without any of them losing, but losses by all three teams would make it all the more likely that UCF gets the bid.
If you are a UCF fan, root for chaos over the coming weeks. The Knights are down, but certainly not completely out.
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