Examining UNC Basketball: Season Predictions, Notable Strengths and Potential Weaknesses

Ladies and gentlemen, we are finally here: it's time to play some basketball at the Dean Smith Center.

North Carolina will begin its fifth year under head coach Hubert Davis with a matchup against Central Arkansas at 7 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ACC Network. The Tar Heels hope to improve on last season, when they finished 23-14 and exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels face a tough nonconference schedule that includes a home game against No. 19 Kansas, a road matchup with No. 9 Kentucky and two neutral-site games—against No. 22 Michigan State in the Fort Myers Classic and Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta.

The Tar Heels will play an 18-game schedule that includes its two-game series against Duke, a home matchup against Louisville, a week-long trip to the Bay Area to take on Cal and Stanford and a trip to Raleigh to take on a much-more improved NC State team at the Lenovo Center.

Season Outlook

UNC, UNC Basketball — North Carolina players huddling up during a stoppage in play; Oct. 29, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Regular Season Record: 25-6 overall, 13-5 ACC

Regular Season Losses: @ Kentucky, @ SMU, @ Virginia, @ NC State, Louisville, @ Duke

ACC Tourney: Lose in the Semifinals

NCAA Tournament Finish: Sweet 16

Final Record: 29-8

Best Player: Caleb Wilson

You could argue for Luka Bogavac and Henri Veesaar, but given the preseason buzz and his performance so far, Wilson is clearly UNC’s top player and likely will remain so through season’s end. In two preseason games, including one against No. 8 BYU, he notched double-doubles in both. Wilson averaged 22.5 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks and one steal.

Lunch Pale Guy: Jarin Stevenson

Jarin Stevenson, UNC, UNC Basketball — North Carolina forward Jarin Stevenson shooting a free throw during UNC's 95-53 win over Winston-Salem State in an exhibiton game on Oct. 29, 2025. | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Stevenson is expected to be a key contributor for North Carolina this season, especially early as he is slated to start at small forward while the Tar Heels await Luka Bogavac’s clearance. Stevenson spent his first two seasons at Alabama, playing a role in the Crimson Tide’s Final Four run two years ago and last season’s Elite Eight appearance.

During his two seasons in Tuscaloosa, he averaged 5.3 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. A capable three-point shooter, Stevenson hit 30.7% from beyond the arc last season, including 41.3% in SEC play.

Strengths: Depth, Versatility, and Three-Point Shooting

UNC, UNC Basketball, Seth Trimble — Seth Trimble throwing down a dunk during North Carolina's 95-53 win over Winston-Salem State in exhibition game on Oct. 29, 2025. | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

With the experience and talent North Carolina added through the transfer portal, the Tar Heels are expected to be a deep team this season, with the ability to go nine or 10 players deep. UNC also boasts a much bigger roster, including six players who stand 6-foot-10 or taller, a factor that should boost their rebounding numbers.

What makes this team intriguing is its versatility. The Tar Heels feature a number of four-level scorers—regardless of size—along with several players willing to shoot from beyond the arc.

Four players shot 35% or better from three-point range in conference play last season: Kyan Evans (45.2%), Jonathan Powell (35.2%), Jarin Stevenson (41.9%) and Henri Veesaar (38.7%). Luka Bogavac made 38% of his three-point attempts while playing in Europe.

Seven different players made a three-pointer against Winston-Salem State on Oct. 29 in the exhibition game, with four—Evans, Powell, Stevenson and Jaydon Young—making multiple threes.

Weaknesses: Work in Progress at Point Guard, Lack of a Backup Big

UNC, UNC Basketball, Hubert Davis — North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis during UNC's 95-53 win over Winston-Salem State in an exhibition game on Oct. 29, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Evans was not only brought to Chapel Hill for his elite shooting prowess but also to serve as the team’s main facilitator. However, he has struggled early and has yet to make an impact as the team’s point guard. His shooting numbers haven’t been great either, hitting just 36.4 percent from the field and making only two of his seven three-point attempts (28.5 percent). He still has plenty of time to adjust.

Dixon, on the other hand, looks the part at 6-5 but will be a project throughout the year as he is just a freshman still adjusting to the college level.

UNC — Kyan Evans at the Blue-White Scrimmage on Oct.4, 2025. | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

There was a lot of optimism about James Brown and Zayden High heading into the season—especially High, who performed well at the Blue-White Scrimmage and at Cherokee. However, they have yet to show that ability against opponents other than themselves, which could be problematic as North Carolina looks for a backup center behind Veesaar.

While Brown has the size to play center (6-10, 235) and has clearly improved his physique, he still lacks the physicality needed at the position. Against BYU, he had no points, no rebounds, two turnovers and two fouls in three minutes.

Though High had a decent showing against Winston-Salem State, a Division II program, he also had zero points and rebounds and committed three turnovers in four minutes against BYU.