Numbers Don't Lie: A Statistical Breakdown of UNC's Jarin Stevenson

An in-depth look at UNC forward Jarin Stevenson’s game, showcasing his skillset through statistical analysis and advanced metrics.

Mar 21, 2025; Cleveland, OH, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide forward Jarin Stevenson (15) dribbles the ball defended by Robert Morris Colonials guard Amarion Dickerson (3) in the first half during the NCAA Tournament First Round at Rocket Arena. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

One of the most intriguing transfer portal pickups for North Carolina has been 6-foot-10 Jarin Stevenson.

Mar 20, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis speaks at press conference during NCAA Tournament First Round Practice at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Stevenson spent his first two collegiate seasons playing basketball at Alabama. He was part of a team that reached the Final Four the previous year and advanced to the Elite Eight this past season. As a freshman with the Crimson Tide, Stevenson averaged 5.3 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. In his sophomore year, he increased his averages slightly to 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.

Despite being a Chapel Hill native, Stevenson chose to commit to Alabama over North Carolina out of high school. However, he transferred to UNC this spring and will play for the Tar Heels this season.

He reclassified to 2023 and was still rated a 4-star prospect, but when he was in the 2024 class, Stevenson was considered one of the top players in the nation.

Last season, Stevenson started 22 of 37 games for Alabama and averaged 18.7 minutes per game. He shot 42.9% from the field, 30.7% of his 101 attempts from three-point range and 59.7%. He also recorded 29 assists, had 30 turnovers, blocked 21 shots, made 17 steals and committed 81 fouls.

Stevenson played 31 minutes over two games against North Carolina, finishing with 6 points and 7 rebounds. He scored all his points on two three-pointers during Alabama’s win over the Tar Heels at the Smith Center last December.

Although Stevenson posted the third-lowest usage rate on Alabama last season, he is poised to become a valuable role player for UNC. The reason is simple: the metrics back him up, and the numbers don’t lie.

Shooting

Feb 1, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide forward Jarin Stevenson (15) shoots the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second half at Coleman Coliseum. | Will McLelland-Imagn Images

A common theme among Stevenson's numbers when it comes to shooting the ball actually improved when Alabama went into SEC play.

Stevenson had an offensive rating of 109.6 overall, but it increased to 117.1 in SEC play.

Stevenson posted a solid effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, hitting 52.9% and 54.5% respectively. However, once Stevenson entered conference play, his numbers became nearly elite, with an effective field goal percentage of 62.2% and a true shooting percentage of 63.2%.

Both metrics capture his ability to maximize scoring from field goals, three-pointers and free throws alike.

Even his three-point field goal percentage went up in conference play, going from 30.7% overall to 41.3% in SEC play.

According to Bart Torvik, Stevenson made 29 of his 43 attempts (67.3%) at the rim.

What He Brings Defensively.

Mar 29, 2025; Newark, NJ, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) drives to the basket against Alabama Crimson Tide forward Jarin Stevenson (15) during the first half in the East Regional final of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Prudential Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Stevenson’s defensive numbers, as previously mentioned, weren’t particularly strong, with 17 steals and 21 blocks over the entire season. However, he was often asked to play the 3, which is not his natural position—he’s better suited as a 4 or 5. As a result, his defensive and rebounding stats were lower than expected.

Still, it’s important to note that good defense isn’t solely defined by how many shots a player blocks or steals they make.

A clearer way to evaluate Stevenson’s defensive impact is through his defensive box plus-minus, an advanced statistic that estimates a player’s overall effect on team defense per 100 possessions. This metric uses traditional box score data—such as steals, blocks, rebounds, and defensive efficiency—to provide a comprehensive assessment of defensive contributions.

Mar 21, 2025; Cleveland, OH, USA; Robert Morris Colonials guard DJ Smith (11) dribbles defended by Alabama Crimson Tide forward Jarin Stevenson (15) in the first half during the NCAA Tournament First Round at Rocket Arena. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Stevenson had a 2.6 defensive box plus-minus in all games, but it increased to a 3.3 in SEC play.

It’s clear that Stevenson is an outstanding defensive player, which was a key factor in him starting 22 games. His combination of length on the perimeter and seamless switching ability makes him an invaluable asset to North Carolina’s roster. He brings the versatility and defensive prowess that Hubert Davis prioritized when building this team.

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