Predicting North Carolina's NCAA Tournament Path

The Tar Heels will need to improve its play if it wants to avoid an early exit in March Madness.

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis (right) talks with guard Seth Trimble (7) during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

With Selection Sunday just hours away, the North Carolina Tar Heels patiently await the bracket reveal, which could unfold in a multitude of ways for the team.

By losing to the Clemson Tigers on Thursday night in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels are no longer in a position that its seeding will be solidified. North Carolina could be a six- or seven-seed in the NCAA tournament. Entering the conference tournament, the Tar Heels were presumably the former, but that should no longer be the case.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis points to his team during the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

With that being said, here are predictions for how North Carolina's path and how far the Tar Heels can reach in March Madness.

First Round: No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Missouri

Feb 21, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Mark Mitchell (25) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Trevon Brazile (7) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 94-86. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

North Carolina could slide to a seven-seed, but based on its resume compiled from the regular season, Hubert Davis' team should head into the NCAA tournament as a six-seed. Assuming that is the case, the prediction for the Tar Heels' opponent in the first round is the Missouri Tigers.

This would be a great draw for the Tar Heels, whose level of success in the tournament is dependent on what teams their quadrant of the region consists of. Missouri is a flawed team, and its best player is forward Mark Mitchell, who averages 17.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game while shooting 54.7 percent from the field.

Feb 21, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Mark Mitchell (25) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Malique Ewin (12) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 94-86. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

However, the 6-foot-9, 229-pound forward shoots a non-threatening 32.6 percent from beyond the arc.

If there's one area that the Tar Heels can depend on, it's their frontcourt, which includes Henri Veesaar, Jarin Stevenson, and Zayden High. The combination of those three players should be able to neutralize Mitchell inside the perimeter. If North Carolina is capable of slowing down Mitchell, the Tar Heels should advance past the first round.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) handles the ball during the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Prediction: North Carolina 74, Missouri 71

Second Round: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 6 North Carolina

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) defends against Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Tar Heels may catch a break in the first round, but I do not expect them to be as fortunate in the ensuing round, as they draw Illinois. While North Carolina can overcome inconsistencies on offense against an opponent of Missouri's caliber, that will not be the case against the Fighting Illini.

Illinois has a mixture of shot-making ability and defensive length, which will overwhelm the Tar Heels, similarly to how they were overmatched against Clemson.

Mar 3, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) celebrates after a three point basket against the Clemson Tigers during the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

It will be a disappointing end for a team that was considered to be a potential dark horse, but with Caleb Wilson unavailable, North Carolina's appearance in this year's tournament will be brief.

Prediction: Illinois 78, North Carolina 68