Saturday Forecast: UNC-UCF Staff Picks and Game Analysis

North Carolina will take on UCF on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on Fox.

Like every Saturday, the staff and I shared our insights and made their predictions for today’s game. Here’s a look at what they expect.

Grant Chachere: UCF, 24-17

Sep 6, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights running back Stacy Gage (21) runs the ball during the second half against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

This is the classic toss up game. North Carolina’s defense has improved. The Tar Heels have tightened up, Carolina has allowed an average of 235 total yards through the last two games and just nine points. The Tar Heels have only given up 145 yards on 77 rushing attempts over their last two games as well—an average of 1.8 yards per carry.

However, my concern is Carolina’s offense. The Tar Heels are in the 100s in nearly every single offensive category: 100th in rushing offense (130.3 yards per game), 117th in passing offense (148.7), 122nd in first downs and 125th in total offense (279.0 yards per game).

Yes, Demon June had a breakout game, and he has the potential to be a star for Carolina in the years ahead. But asking a freshman tailback to carry the team every week is unrealistic. If the Tar Heels want to win this matchup, they’ll need to get it done through the air. Gio Lopez hasn’t shown much so far, and offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens still hasn’t proven he can be an elite playcaller.

I think UNC’s defense will get it done but the offense won’t. The Tar Heels lose by a touchdown.

Jeremiah Artacho: Carolina, 27-24

North Carolina will be up against a UCF team with pass rushers capable of getting to the backfield with ease if the offensive line in front of quarterback Gio Lopez does not do its job of protecting. However, UNC's run game has continued to establish itself with the arrival of freshman back Demon June, who is coming off a big outing against the Richmond Spiders, running for 148 yards.

A mixture of tough pass and run blocking, as well as execution of Lopez's passes can lead to potential success for Bill Belichick and his staff. Belichick and UCF head coach Scott Frost, have known each other fairly well, dating back to their NFL days together, but the two will square off to try and add another win to their total.

My score prediction? UNC wins 27-24, for its third win of the 2025 campaign.

Sienna Ayes: Carolina, 24-7

UNC — North Carolina offensive lineman Chad Lindbergh (Sept. 15, 2025) | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

UNC travels to Orlando tomorrow with a strong chance to upset UCF on the road. The Tar Heels’ defense has been impressive, holding two straight opponents without allowing a touchdown. Freshman running back Demon June has quickly become the team’s spark, totaling 200 rushing yards on just 23 carries, highlighted by a 148-yard, one-touchdown performance against Richmond.

If UNC establishes the run through June and maintains its defensive consistency, the Heels have the pieces to counter UCF’s home-field advantage and come out of Florida with a statement victory.

Corey Davis: UCF, 27-20

Sep 6, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback Jacurri Brown (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

This matchup should be nothing short of entertaining, but definitely a close contest. UCF enters as a slight favorite thanks to a strong start and the advantage of playing at home in Orlando. The Knights' defense has handled the pass well, and their passing game has been efficient enough to sustain drives. UNC’s ground game, powered by a deep running back rotation led by the consistently productive Demon June, is its best weapon.

If UCF contains the early runs and forces UNC to throw, the Knights’ secondary could shift the game. On the other hand, if UNC controls tempo and protects the football, their physical rushing attack could wear UCF down. Overall, the matchup favors UCF because of its defensive versatility and home momentum. Expect a competitive game with both offenses trading scores before UCF pulls away late. My final score prediction: UCF 27, UNC 20.

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