3 Overreactions to UNC Football’s First Three Games

The Tar Heels are better than last year, but there is plenty of room for growth after three games.

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney and University of North Carolina Head Coach Bill Belichick briefly shake hands after the game in Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C., Saturday, September 19, 2026. Clemson won 28-20. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Saturday was a tough watch for North Carolina Tar Heels fans after a quarter-and-a-half of being teased with a major win in Death Valley, only to blow their 17-3 lead in the second half and lose 28-20 ahead of the bye week.

We have learned a lot about the Tar Heels both on and off the field. The first three games of the season offer plenty to discuss, and it is clear the program is slowly improving, as head coach Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare for a top-five team, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Bill Belichick | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

What we learned may or may not be overreactions, but I need to react anyway. Here are three overreactions to North Carolina’s first three games of the regular season. 

Defensive Line Is Legit

Aug 29, 2026; Dublin, Co. Dublin, IRL; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Xavier Lewis (90) against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Laszlo Geczo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One of the aspects of the program I was looking forward to watching this season was their defensive front, but not in this fashion, specifically with the emergence of defensive tackle Xavier Lewis, one of the country’s leading pass rushers with six sacks in three games, two in each contest.

The Tar Heels' defensive line is having success despite missing star pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude for the last two games with a hand/wrist injury. Jaylen Harvey's emergence has helped ease the loss, while Leroy Jackson and Isaiah Johnson have been disruptive in the middle. True freshman Calvin Thomas is getting some run as of late, which helps the Tar Heels remain fresh and stout.

Sep 19, 2026; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; University of North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Jaylen Harvey (11) celebrates after recovering a fumbled ball late in the first quarter against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ashley Tumlin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

North Carolina will win games because of their defensive line. This is one of the better groups in the ACC, and it showed against a weak Clemson offensive line last weekend.

Quarterback Situation Went From Steady to Dire

University of North Carolina quarterback Miles O'Neill (8) during warm-up period before the game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Saturday, September 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Early on, I hoped Billy Edwards would maintain a steady level and develop into a quality starting quarterback for North Carolina, becoming the game manager I expected of him after his decent display against TCU. However, it fell apart against Clemson, and the quarterback situation quickly went from steady to dire. 

You cannot have a performance like that in a big-game environment, and Edwards' confidence seemed absent in the second half. As I argued recently, it is now or never to see what backup Miles O’Neill can do. His potential first start would be against the Fighting Irish—never ideal to put a young signal-caller in that situation—so these times call for desperate measures.

Bill Belichick’s Program Can Compete Hard This Season

University of North Carolina Head Coach Bill Belichick during warm up period before the game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Saturday, September 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Tar Heels are a much better program than they were a year ago, and it's shown over three weeks. Many expected them to be 1-2 at this point in the year, but the effort and near-victory at Clemson show that North Carolina and Belichick are going to be tough outings for much of the year, even if they don’t win half the time.

Both sides of the ball have improved drastically. It is clear Belichick is in the hot seat, but you wouldn’t know it from the way the team plays for him. Just like any other Belichick-led program in history, the Tar Heels play hard and aren’t afraid to make things testy for their opponents.