3 X-Factors for North Carolina in 2026

It is still possible that the North Carolina Tar Heels bring in one more player from the transfer portal or the recruiting pool, but barring a groundbreaking acquisition, the team's roster for next season is essentially finalized.

What does that mean? The pieces at Michael Malone's disposal are the ones he is going to have to ride with during the 2026-27 season. While several programs around the country spent nearly $20 million on the portal and created superteams, the 54-year-old head coach took a modest approach during his first offseason in Chapel Hill to assemble a roster of players who would maximize his system and enhance the culture.

If you look at the Tar Heels' signings this offseason, the majority of them are developmental pieces who can set the foundation for next season and beyond. While last season's path to production was straightforward, with Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar as the clear one-two punch, this upcoming season's team will be a much more well-balanced operation.

Everyone will have a distinct role and purpose, which provides an opportunity for a few players to emerge from the woodwork as monumental pieces.

Mar 10, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone gestures to his team during a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Here are three players who will be pivotal in North Carolina's level of success in the 2026-27 college basketball season.

Jarin Stevenson

There's a reason Malone prioritized retaining Stevenson this offseason. The 6-foot-9, 216-pound forward developed into a major chess piece for the Tar Heels last season. That wasn't recognized under the shadow of Wilson and Veesaar, but once the superstar freshman phenom suffered a season-ending hand injury, Stevenson's role expanded exponentially.

That role will remain with the two stars out of the picture next season, and Stevenson should shine under Malone, who envisions Stevenson operating similarly to Aaron Gordon. What makes Stevenson such a key element in all of this is his versatility and ability to defend all five positions on the court. If he can carry over what he accomplished in the final nine games into next season, he may log the most minutes on the entire roster.

Neoklis Avdalas

Many of you may be surprised that I chose Avdalas over Terrence Brown, but this is neither a knock on the Utah transfer nor an endorsement of the Virginia Tech transfer as the best guard in the backcourt. What I am saying is that Avdalas can unlock another element for this team.

Brown is a natural scorer and produces points effortlessly, but who says he has to singlehandedly generate those opportunities on his own? Avdalas's ability to play point guard at 6-foot-9 is a tantalizing option for Malone and this coaching staff.

March 10, 2026: Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Myles Colvin (6) knocks the ball away from Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) during the first half of the 2025 ACC Men's Baskeetball Championship at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. (Scott Kinser) | (Scott Kinser)

Last season, Avdalas averaged 4.6 assists while shooting 38.6 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from three-point range. If those shooting percentages increase, defenders will need to step up to contest on the perimeter, leaving vacant space and passing lanes that Avdalas can expose.

Sayon Keita

Mar 27, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; The North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the video board during practice prior to NCAA Tournament at West Regional at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

As currently constituted, North Carolina's center rotation is incredibly thin, with Keita and Cade Bennerman as the only two "centers". Stevenson can fill in at center, which is another reason the veteran forward is so important for the Tar Heels in 2026.

Nevertheless, Keita has to make an immediate impact, which is a lot to ask of an overseas transfer who is still only 18. However, the former Barcelona big man's development process will need to be expedited if North Carolina wants to legitimately challenge the top programs in the country.

Mar 9, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone gestures to his team as they play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

I expect Malone to pursue and sign one more center, but even if that transpires, Keita will undoubtedly be in the starting lineup.

Add us as a preferred source on Google