UNC’s 2025 Win-Loss Scenarios in Belichick's 1st Season

UNC’s 2025 football season could go in three directions. Here’s what Bill Belichick and the Heels are up against.

Dec 28, 2024; Boston, MA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Chris Culliver (3) returns a kick for a touchdown against the Connecticut Huskies during the first half at Fenway Park. | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Here’s an interesting and thought-provoking question: How many games do you think North Carolina can win in the 2025 season?

Coming off a 6–7 season marked by inconsistency, the Tar Heels return just six starters — four on offense and two on defense. While the roster is filled with veterans, there are 70 new players on this team. Even with Bill Belichick and his coaching staff littered with coaches with Super Bowl rings, the questions lie more with the players.

With a lack of offensive firepower in the skill positions and questions on whether or not the defense will improve, there is just as much enigma as there is hype.

Here are three scenarios for the Tar Heels’ win-loss record this season.

Ceiling: 10-2 

Mar 8, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Former North Carolina Tar Heels great Lawrence Taylor with head football coach Bill Belichick together during a time out in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

A lot has to happen for UNC to get to a 10-win season, but it’s a possibility, even if it is the slightest, as North Carolina could be the next Indiana.

According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, North Carolina is 51st in strength of schedule and has a 72.7% chance of winning at least six games, which would make the team bowl eligible. 

Carolina’s nonconference schedule also sets up favorably. The toughest matchup comes against TCU, which is coming off a 9-4 season, but that game will be played in Chapel Hill. The rest of the slate includes two Group of Five programs in transition—Charlotte and UCF—as well as an FCS opponent in Richmond. 

In conference play, the only two teams that won seven games or more were Clemson and Duke. Everyone else on its ACC slate has six or less wins.

Indiana got to the playoffs last season by having an easier schedule than most as most of its games had Indiana as the favorite and the Hoosiers won its toss-up games. Indiana did not play a ranked team until it played No. 2 Ohio State on the road, which it lost 38-15. 

“The schedule sets up really well,” Klatt said on his self-titled podcast. “They’re in the ACC, so it’s not like they’re going to be playing a ton of games against teams with marginally better talent than them. Maybe Clemson is on that list. That’s their toughest game by far. I think only one top 25 game this year, that’s Clemson. They don’t play SMU, Miami, Louisville, Georgia Tech, or Florida State… If you lose to Clemson, it’s like ‘Who cares?'”

Realistic: 8-4

Quarterback Gio Lopez handing the ball off to Demon June at the Koman Practice Complex in Chapel Hill, N.C. on Aug. 2, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels on SI

The most likely scenario is that Carolina finishes with seven or eight wins, given all of the unknowns on this team. While the schedule is favorable, there are a lot of toss-up games on the schedule: TCU, Syracuse, Duke and NC State. The games against Syracuse and NC State are on the road.

UCF and Cal are potential trap games as well due to the fact that they are on the road. UCF’s Bounce House has always been a tough place to play while the Cal trip has more to do with the 3,000-mile trek to get to the Bay Area.

However, this team did finish the regular season 6-6 last season and with upgrades at the quarterback position, offensive line and the defense this season will be seen as one of improvement.

I think 4-8 or 5-7 is the floor for this team. It’s a reasonable one as I think there are several gimmes on this schedule with Charlotte, Richmond, Cal and Stanford. However, the rest are tossups.

Once again, I may be beating a dead horse, but this team is unpredictable. However, if North Carolina misses the postseason for the first time since 2018, it will be because of the lack of offensive playmakers at the skill positions and the defense’s failure to improve.

If North Carolina endures another losing season, it will underscore how much the Tar Heels miss Omarion Hampton. Having a difference-maker on offense is critical to their success this year, with or without a solid defense.

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