Predicting UNC Basketball’s ACC Record in Michael Malone’s First Season

UNC’s ACC schedule is officially set, and the road slate looks favorable.

Dec 6, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; A general view of the logo on the court prior to the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Western Carolina Catamounts at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images | Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images

The Tar Heels’ ACC opponents for the 2026-2027 season have officially been announced, and the draw seems generous at first glance.

At home, the Tar Heels will take on Miami, Cal, Georgia Tech, SMU, Stanford, Virginia, and NC State. The toughest of those games at first glance would likely be Virginia and Miami, with NC State coming up next.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) scores as Virginia Cavaliers forward Devin Tillis (11) defends in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

On the road, the Tar Heels will take on Florida State, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech. This is the interesting part. Six of those seven teams finished last season in the bottom half of the ACC, meaning North Carolina should end up tallying the win column a lot this season on the road. 

Duke and Louisville split a home-and-away series with North Carolina, which will likely be four of the Tar Heels' toughest games. With that being said, let’s predict the Tar Heels' overall ACC record for the upcoming season.

(Blue) Devil’s Advocate

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; The Duke Blue Devils mascot performs during a timeout against the UConn Huskies in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

For the sake of this exercise, we’ll be a bit harsh on our predictions to give us a “worst-case scenario” feel. In the home and away series with Duke and Louisville, those are games that the Tar Heels could go 0-4 in realistically. Thinking positively, let’s give them a split win with each team to bring them to 2-2 from those games alone.

For the home games, there are some tough matchups. As I said earlier, Miami, Virginia, and NC State pose somewhat of a threat, so let’s play devil’s advocate and give us a 1-2 record in those three games, with the win coming from NC State at home. 

Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Dallin Hall (30) dribbles the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

For the remainder of the home teams, I would be shocked to see any slip-ups there, but crazy things happen in college basketball, so let’s add on a single loss just for insurance purposes. That brings the Tar Heels' overall record to 6-5. 

Now, looking at the road games, I think Florida State could be the team of the bunch to watch out for, so let’s tally a loss there. North Carolina should be able to handle the rest relatively easily. 

Final Projected Record

Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; A view of the North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the shorts of forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

This gives the Tar Heels a projected record of 12-6 at a “worst-case scenario.” This is the exact record Carolina ended with last season. With a brand-new roster and a new coach, the unfortunate reality is that it may take time to reach where North Carolina is aiming.

The ceiling, however, is exciting for this group of guys this season. They could truly achieve another perfect home record, giving North Carolina nine wins from those games alone. 

The best part about this schedule is the lack of quality opponents on the road. If North Carolina plays strongly at home this season, they could be in for a very high finish in the ACC.