Predicting North Carolina's Football Record Following Spring Ball

The North Carolina Tar Heels have concluded spring workouts as they head into the summer with low expectations from the outside after a horrendous showing in Year 1 of the Bill Belichick era.

As we head into summer break, the Tar Heels have done the work this offseason to make key improvements to their roster and coaching staff. With all the additions made from the transfer portal and 2026 recruiting class, let's dive into a brand-new schedule prediction for North Carolina as they look to improve from their dismal 2025 campaign.

Week 0 — vs. TCU Horned Frogs (Ireland)

Belichick UNC — Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick with TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes after the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Revenge will be on the minds of Belichick and the Tar Heels following last year's embarrassing debut of this era in North Carolina football. New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino should make his unit the strength of the team, and could give TCU and Sonny Dykes quite the matchup. However, the quarterback situation is still murky following the spring.

I'm going to say that true freshman Travis Burgess emerges as the opening-week starter at quarterback for the Tar Heels. I still have concerns about this defense, but in a shootout across the pond, Belichick gets his first Week 0 win as a college football head coach. Record: 1-0

Week 2 — vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Shipp UNC — Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Jordan Shipp (1) makes a catch in the second quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

ETSU was a sneaky team in the FCS last season and could pose a challenge...in the first quarter. However, this is a "get-right" game for the Tar Heels' defense, and a young Burgess will be able to sling the ball around to his pass-catchers, Jordan Shipp and Nathan Leacock. There's a good chance UNC drops 50 on the FCS program. Record: 2-0

Week 3 — at Clemson Tigers

Dabo UNC — Oct 4, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney with North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

If this were a day game of some kind, I would say North Carolina has a shot to be competitive for much of the game. If it is a night matchup, Death Valley is one of the toughest places to play in the country, as it is one of the loudest environments in college football. I have to see these Tar Heels play in real action before boldly claiming an upset, and that means Clemson handing their opponent their first loss of the season. Record: 2-1

Week 5 — vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Maye UNC — Sep 24, 2022; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Marist Liufau (8) pressures in the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Notre Dame will be considered a national championship contender and one of the highest-ranking teams on the AP Top 25. While homefield advantage is great for North Carolina, this is an excellent Fighting Irish team with loads of NFL talent on both sides of the ball that will be too much to overcome, even for a true freshman like Burgess. Welcome back to reality, Tar Heels fans. Record: 2-2

Week 6 — at Pittsburgh Panthers

Hampton UN — Oct 5, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) runs in the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel is one of the most intriguing talents in the country and has a chance to lead the Panthers to success. North Carolina's defense is still struggling to this point, and the bleeding isn't expected to stop anytime soon in this scenario. Even with a better day offensively from Burgess and a run game led by Demon June and Benjamin Hall, Pitt takes the edge with more experience from its signal-caller. Record: 2-3

Week 7 — at Duke Blue Devils

Running back Nate Sheppard is one of the most talented tailbacks in the ACC and will be the engine of the Blue Devils' offense with questions at quarterback. North Carolina's offense has its most productive day of the season as the defense secures key takeaways against Duke's offense in a much-needed rebound performance. Record: 3-3

Week 8 — vs. Syracuse Orange

I smell an offensive slugfest with constant punches thrown from both schools (figuratively speaking). Syracuse and Fran Brown have recruited well and have a lot of exciting young talent, and if key players can remain healthy, the Orange could be a tough team in the ACC. In this matchup, Burgess continues to show potential as the run game and offensive line have their best day against a re-worked Orange defensive front, entering the final stretch with a winning record. Record: 4-3

Week 9 — vs. Miami Hurricanes

UNC — Oct 14, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels tight end John Copenhaver (81) runs after a catch as Miami Hurricanes defensive back Jaden Davis (22) defends in the second half at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-Imagn Images | Nell Redmond-Imagn Images

Miami reached the national championship last year for the first time since the 2002 season. Their roster is still talented enough to get back there as the likely favorites in the ACC. This is another program that is simply a mismatch for the Tar Heels, even at Kenan Memorial, as Belichick's squad showcases its true colors. Record: 4-4

Week 10 — at UConn Huskies

UConn has been an ascending program in college football for the past couple of years, winning nine games this past season. They are always a tough outing, no matter where they play. North Carolina will anticipate this as one of the true road challenges they will have all season.

This year, however, is a sign of progress for Belichick's program. Mark this down as an impressive road win as the young freshman quarterback of Burgress continues to make an impression. Record: 5-4

Week 11 — vs. Louisville Cardinals

Louisville UNC — Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Clev Lubin (50) held a coach's whiteboard with the letters BTA and carried a belt after the Cards dominated rival Kentucky 41-0 Saturday, November 29, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Louisville's defense is expected to be one of the best in the conference this season, posing a significant challenge for Petrino's offense. Consistency has remained an issue for the Tar Heels in this scenario, but they continue to show signs of growth across the board. Expect this game to be a low-scoring, rugged affair in Chapel Hill, but the Cardinals sneak out with a win, dealing a heartbreaking defeat. Record: 5-5

Week 12 — at Virginia Cavaliers

UNC UV — Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Coleman Bryson (16) and linebacker Mikai Gbayor (4) react in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers are expected to be another tough opponent in the ACC next season after winning a program-record 11 games. There could be a slight regression, but have shown to be a more consistent and well-organized program than North Carolina, even to this point. A defense that has had its ups and downs in this scenario, the Tar Heels fail to slow down Virginia's offense as they head into Senior Day hoping to become bowl-eligible. Record: 5-6

Week 13 — vs. N.C. State Wolfpack

UNC NCSU — Oct 24, 2020; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Javonte Williams (25) runs for a touchdown as North Carolina State Wolfpack safety Jakeen Harris (6) defends in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Is this the year the Wolfpack finally wins 10 games and earns a spot in the ACC Championship? In the words of the great Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend." This game, no matter what, should be circled on the calendar for all Tar Heels fans as North Carolina has lost five in a row to N.C. State, and on Senior Day in the most critical season of the Belichick era, the streak is snapped as UNC finished the season at an even .500 to earn themselves a bowl game.

Final record: 6-6

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