Gradual Improvement Is the Right Expectation for UNC Football

Over a year ago, there was much intrigue and excitement about the potential of the North Carolina Tar Heels football program. Bill Belichick, the greatest head coach in NFL history, would be leading a college football team for the first time, backed by a pro-like management with Michael Lombardi as general manager and millions invested into the program from the higher ups at Chapel Hill.

What followed was grand disappointment, many new lessons learned, the fact that 70 new players were on the roster during the season, and moments of purely inadequate play led to a dismal 4-8 record, including three heartbreaking losses to Cal, Virginia, and Duke. North Carolina became the laughing stock of the sport.

This spring, with no second transfer portal in sight, Belichick was able to assemble a legitimate and respected high school recruiting class with 31 incoming freshmen and 21 players. Once more, there are many new faces on the roster and coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.

There is a new goal for the Tar Heels in 2026. The lights will remain bright because it is Belichick leading North Carolina. Yet expectations remain fairly tempered, since the upcoming season should center on gradual improvement and on establishing a culture that appeals to transfers, recruits, and homegrown players alike.

Finding the Expectations for Tar Heels Football in 2026

Edwards UNC — Sep 20, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (9) looks to throw a pass during the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

There are roughly four and a half months left until North Carolina kickoff their season in Dublin, Ireland, against the TCU Horned Frogs. The quarterback situation remains fluid, though the expectation is that Maryland transfer Billy Edwards will be the starting signal-caller while true freshman Travis Burgess could make a push.

The offensive line remains fluid at best, but Petrino knows how to coach an offense and work around potential weaknesses. This is important, especially with a steady group of pass-catchers and running backs across the board.

Shipp UNC — Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Jordan Shipp (1) celebrates after a touchdown during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Keep an eye out for this tight end room with Jordan Washington from Texas and Jelani Thurman from Ohio State; two talented big men who can play in-line and the slot as Petrino could deploy more 12 personnel.

Wide receiver Jordan Shipp looks like a potential riser for the 2027 NFL Draft (yes, I am looking a year ahead) while Demon June leads the backfield as a key standout for the Tar Heels' offense. If you're looking for something to get excited about with this program, it is the potential this offense has to keep North Carolina competitive against the ACC's best and Notre Dame.

Patterson UN — Oct 4, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Jaiden Patterson (18) breaks up a pass intended for Clemson Tigers wide receiver Tristan Smith (3) in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

I'm wary of where the Tar Heels' defense stands under well-respected defensive coordinator Steve Belichick. Edge rusher Melkart Abou-Jaoude is far and away the Heels' best defender, with Jaiden Patterson and Kaleb Cost returning at defensive back, both of whom tied for second in pass deflections.

The last line of defense at safety is expected to be a mixture of Greg Smith, Coleman Bryson, Javion Butts, and Jakob Weatherspoon seeing the field. Linebacker and defensive tackle are both in a true rebuild stage, which means there may not be significant improvements unless incoming freshmen were to step up.

Belichick UNC — Nov 29, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick on the sideline during the first half of the game against NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

I believe the Tar Heels are in a better place than a year ago. There is certainly improvement and a good amount of talent retained in what is still clearly a rebuilding process for the program. Frankly, it is still hard to gauge if any of this works out for Belichick and North Carolina, but effort isn't lacking.

The goal in 2026 should be about continuing to learn and grow as a program while also learning how to win. This offense will be the focal point that may lead to plenty of high-scoring affairs due to a defense that some believe will be stuck neutral going into this season.

The only way the defense improves is by creating more takeaways and splash defensive plays overall. Heading into fall camp in a few months, I view the Tar Heels as a middle-of-the-pack team for 2026, ranging from five wins to seven, at best.

Again, this is a better program than it was a year ago from a continuity perspective, especially with recruitment, retention, and transfer acquisitions. Anything can happen in college football, as North Carolina could be one of the more encouraging and improving programs in the country.