UNC's Transfer Portal Class Raises Preseason Expectations

The Tar Heels' preseason expectations have elevated.

Mar 12, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With a significant portion of the offseason behind us, the college basketball landscape is vividly clear, as rosters and coaching staffs are basically set in stone.

Constructing a formidable roster was not guaranteed for the North Carolina Tar Heels, as they entered this offseason with more questions than answers. Needing a new head coach and a completely new cast of players had North Carolina in a precarious position. However, newly hired head coach Michael Malone has done an excellent job in setting the foundation for this upcoming season and beyond.

Malone's arrival in Chapel Hill forced the roster to be constructed almost exclusively through the transfer portal. North Carolina's roster was expected to be a major work in progress, but to Malone and his staff's credit, that will not be the case. Earlier this week, ESPN's Joe Lunardi released his latest version of "Bracketology", and the Tar Heels' ranking reflects what has transpired this offseason.

Where North Carolina Ranks

Earlier this offseason, prior to the plethora of transfer portal acquisitions, Lunardi had North Carolina as a 9-seed in the field. In this updated bracket, the Tar Heels are a 7-seed. Obviously, that speaks to what the program has accomplished this offseason since hiring Malone in early April.

As mentioned, there were major concerns that 2026 could be a retooling year for North Carolina, as it lost eight of its 10 leading scorers from last year's roster. At one point, the Tar Heels' roster consisted of Jarin Stevenson, Jaydon Young, and Isaiah Denis. With the transfer portal window already in full swing, it was unimaginable that North Carolina would be where it is right now.

Is This Ranking Fair?

Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; A view of the North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the shorts of forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Based on Lunardi's projection, the Tar Heels would be ranked anywhere between the 25th- to 28th- overall team in the field. Taking that into consideration, it is a fair evaluation for the time being. However, as you have heard me say countless times throughout the offseason, I believe North Carolina could be ranked as high as a 5-seed by the time next March rolls around. That would mean they are in the range of the 16th- to 20th-overall team.

That may be a tad bullish on my part, but Malone is lightyears ahead of Hubert Davis as a head coach - winning an NBA title in 2023 - and this roster is arguably better than last season. The Tar Heels may not have a top-four NBA draft pick in the rotation, but you make a legitimate case that there are more impactful pieces off the bench. With Malone at the helm, this team's versatility and broad skill sets should be maximized.