Where UNC Basketball Projected to Finish in ACC

It's a new chapter for the North Carolina Tar Heels, with Michael Malone taking over as head coach and a revamped roster.

The expectations for the Tar Heels this season have been a polarizing topic, as the potential is certainly there, but there are questions about several areas of the roster and Malone's effectiveness in Year 1. For most of the offseason, experts and analysts have provided their thoughts and concerns about North Carolina in 2026. The consensus opinion is that the Tar Heels will have a difficult time competing. That's reflected in the latest ACC preseason poll.

Where is North Carolina Projected to Finish?

Mar 27, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; The North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the video board during practice prior to NCAA Tournament at West Regional at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Following a vote by 48 media members at the ACC Basketball Tipoff, the Tar Heels were projected to finish in fifth place in the conference. It's been the norm for North Carolina to be overlooked in preseason rankings and projections. This is another example of that.

It comes as no surprise that the Duke Blue Devils are heavy favorites to finish atop the ACC, but the second and third spots are eye-opening. Based on the media's votes, the Virginia Cavaliers were No. 2 and the Louisville Cardinals were No. 3. Other than those two teams switching places, it was status quo for the rest of the projected standings.

Is North Carolina Too Low?

Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; A view of the North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the shorts of forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At this point, my opinion that the Tar Heels have been underrated throughout the offseason is well-established. The aforementioned teams being ranked above North Carolina is a justifiable sentiment, but the Miami Hurricanes being listed one spot above the Tar Heels is one I'll contest.

Fifth place is North Carolina's floor, but the talent on the roster, paired with Malone's coaching pedigree, has to be baked into the equation.

Will the Tar Heels Exceed Expectations?

North Carolina will finish inside the top four in the ACC. The team accomplished that feat last season, and while this year's roster doesn't feature a top-five NBA draft pick, the coaching is significantly better under Malone. Additionally, the roster is deeper and has more dependable assets.

My belief in North Carolina predominantly resides in Malone's ability to elevate and maximize the talent in the rotation. This also feels like an easy bet for the Tar Heels to surpass the fifth-place projection. In fact, North Carolina could end the regular season as high as the No. 3 seed entering the ACC tournament. We'll learn a lot more about the Tar Heels' potential during the non-conference portion of the schedule.

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