Where North Carolina Projected in Latest 76-Team Bracket

Here is where the Tar Heels are seeded in the latest bracket projections.

Apr 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone reacts in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After days of speculation, the NCAA officially expanded the men's and women's brackets to 76 teams, with the change taking effect next season.

The latest bracket configuration sparked several debates about whether it is good for the tournament's product. While that has been the case for many days, ESPN's Joe Lunardi wasted no time releasing his way-too-early projections for the updated field of 76. Here is where he had the Tar Heels.

North Carolina Too Low?

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) bites his jersey against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

After being positioned as a 7-seed in the previous projections, the Tar Heels slipped to a No. 9 seed in the East Region. Losing Henri Veesaar will do that to a program that had already experienced significant roster turnover prior to the star center's decision to enter the 2026 NBA Draft.

This would obviously be a disappointment if things unfolded this way for North Carolina in 2026, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that this team will be seeded much higher by the time next March rolls around.

North Carolina Will Surpass This Projection

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jarin Stevenson (15) celebrates after a play against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

I know it remains to be seen whether Malone can produce immediate success in his first season in Chapel Hill, but the Tar Heels being a lower seed than last year is difficult to imagine. Yes, the top-end talent on this roster is not as high as in 2025, as Veesaar and Caleb Wilson are more talented than anyone on next season's roster.

That being said, Malone is light-years ahead of Hubert Davis, who proved time and time again that he was not the answer as North Carolina's head coach. Malone should be able to elevate and maximize this group of players. Additionally, the Tar Heels were pitiful from beyond the arc and the free-throw line, two areas that should vastly improve in the 54-year-old head coach's system.

Mar 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Terrence Brown, Neoklis Avdalas, and Matt Able form an intriguing trio, with each player operating in multiple roles. Also, last season's team, which stemmed from the coaching staff, failed to adjust on multiple accounts. With Malone and the versatility of North Carolina's personnel, those issues should be minimized in 2026.

Based on the combination of coaching and personnel, I think the Tar Heels will be a 5- or 6-seed in next year's tournament. The Tar Heels will be one of the most fascinating teams to keep tabs on as the regular season progresses, but they aren't generating much hype early on.