Recruiting Buzz for Five-Star Tyran Stokes Isn't Great For USC

For months, the USC Trojans had reason to believe they were serious contenders for five-star forward Tyran Stokes — the No. 1 player in the 2026 recruiting class from Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, California.

But with the latest wave of recruiting buzz, that optimism appears to be fading. According to multiple recruiting analysts, Stokes’ recruitment has shifted toward a two-team race between Kentucky and Kansas.

Louisville and Oregon are reportedly falling behind, leaving USC clinging to the fringes of a competition that once looked much closer.

Per 247Sports, Kentucky still leads the race for Stokes, with its staff prediction page now listing the Wildcats in the “warmer” category — while USC remains simply “warm.”

That subtle distinction carries weight. It signals a cooling perception around the Trojans’ chances as other programs ramp up their pursuit of the country’s top-ranked senior.

Kentucky Leads, Kansas Surging

USC Trojans five star recruit Tyran Stokes Kansas Jayhawks Kentucky Wildcats coach Eric Musselman mark Pope — Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope calls out to his team Friday, March 28, 2025, during the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kentucky’s connection to Stokes has been consistent from the start.

The Wildcats have long maintained ties through both proximity and relationships, giving coach Mark and his staff a built-in advantage.

Eric Bossi, national basketball director at 247Sports, noted that while an official decision date from Stokes may not be imminent, Kansas is “pushing” to close the gap.

"Kentucky still sounds to be the favorite, but it is interesting to note that others are still pushing. Particularly interesting is that Kansas continues to push hard even though Stokes has signed a deal with Nike and the Jayhawks are an Adidas program," wrote Bossi.

On3’s Joe Tipton added that the Jayhawks have “momentum,” even as Kentucky remains the perceived frontrunner.

Adding to Kansas’ surge is the presence of Taylen Kinney, the No. 1 point guard in the 2026 class, who committed to the Jayhawks in late September.

Kinney has reportedly been active behind the scenes, recruiting Stokes to join him in Lawrence.

The 6-foot-1 Overtime Elite guard represents both a future teammate and a persuasive voice — one that could give Kansas an edge in this late-stage recruiting push.

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The Nike Factor Complicates the Picture

USC Trojans five star recruit Tyran Stokes Kansas Jayhawks Kentucky Wildcats coach Eric Musselman — Jan 4, 2025; Gilbert, AZ, USA; Notre Dame High School (CA) forward Tyran Stokes (4) against Sandra Day O'Connor (AZ) during the Hoophall West High School Invitational at Highland High School. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Earlier this month, Stokes signed a name, image and likeness deal with Nike, raising further questions about how brand affiliations might influence his choice.

Both Kentucky and USC are Nike schools, while Kansas is aligned with Adidas — a potential hurdle as the Jayhawks make their case.

Still, analysts caution against assuming the NIL deal automatically ties Stokes to a Nike school.

Kentucky’s deep basketball heritage, NBA pipeline, and current momentum in the 2026 class have positioned them to overcome nearly every variable in play.

USC’s Window May Be Closing

USC hosted Stokes on an official visit earlier this year, hoping proximity and program momentum could help sway the hometown star.

But since then, recruiting winds have shifted. Oregon’s recent addition of a high-profile four-star forward cut into the Ducks’ leverage, yet the Trojans haven’t capitalized.

Now, as Stokes inches closer to a decision, USC fans are left watching Kentucky and Kansas dominate the headlines.

The Trojans remain technically in the race, but the current temperature of his recruitment suggests otherwise.

Unless a major late development swings the tide, the nation’s top prospect could soon be bound for Lexington or Lawrence — not Los Angeles.