USC’s NCAA Tournament Projection Just Shifted in a Major Way

The USC Trojans picked up a big win on Tuesday night, defeating the Indiana Hoosiers 81-75 at the Galen Center. Where do the Trojans now stand when it comes to the NCAA Tournament bubble?

USC In Tournament Field, For Now

USC Trojans Eric Musselman NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection Bubble Alijah Arenas Chad Baker-Mazara Injury Rodney Rice — Jan 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) enters the court before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The win over Indiana bumped USC further into the projected 2026 NCAA Tournament field according to ESPN bracketolgist Joe Lundardi. Coming into the game, USC was one of the last four teams in the field. Now, they have the last bye in the tournament which would slate them as a No. 10 or No. 11 seed.

USC this season has an overall record of 17-6 and a Big Ten conference record of 6-6. Here is their resume breakdown when it comes to Quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games.

Quad 1: 2-4
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3: 3-0
Quad 4: 5-0

The Trojans have been able to pick up a few quad 1 wins while avoiding the bad losses in quad 3 and 4. They have a net ranking of 47.

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USC Looking To Snap Tournament Drought

USC has missed the NCAA Tournament each of the past two years and they haven’t particularly close either. The Trojans went 15-18 in 2023-24 and 17-18 in 2024-25. This 2025-26 Trojans team is trying to snap the two-year drought of no NCAA Tournament.

USC has had to overcome some brutal injuries this season including a season ending shoulder injury to guard Rodney Rice. Rice had been the Trojans’ leading scorer this season, averaging 20.3 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds.

USC’s second leading scorer, guard Chad Baker-Mazara, also just suffered an injury in the win over Indiana that caused him to leave the game. After the game, USC coach Eric Musselman was spoke to reporters if there was an update on the injury.

“We have no update on Chad. It seems like a sprain and probably the MCL, not the ACL,” Musselman said. “We have no real time table until they do the MRI.”

On the bright side of things for USC, freshman guard Alijah Arenas is showing why he was a five-star recruit in the class of 2025 coming out of high school. Against Indiana, Arenas dropped a career high 29 points to go along with six rebounds, a steal, and a block.

Arenas has had to battle back from some serious setbacks this past offseason including being involved in a car accident that left him in a coma due to smoke inhalation back in April of 2025. After recovering from that, Arenas suffered a torn meniscus just a couple months later.

He finally was able to make his collegiate debut on Jan. 21. In five games played, Arenas has averaged 11.8 points. With the injuries to their two leader scorers in the backcourt, Arenas has the opportunity to step in and be a go-to option. His performance against Indiana was a good sign for the Trojans and shows that he might be ready for the challenge.