USC Trojans' NCAA Tournament Projection Updated After Road Win Over Wisconsin

Following a much-needed 73-71 road win over the Wisconsin Badgers on Sunday, what is the USC Trojans' current NCAA Tournament bracket projection?

USC head coach Eric Musselman reacts to a play against Michigan during the first half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Following a devastating 74-68 home loss to the Northwestern Wildcats, the USC Trojans earned a much-needed 73-71 win over the Wisconsin Badgers on the road on Sunday. Trailing by 12 points halfway through the second half, the Trojans rallied back courtesy of key plays down the stretch by USC guard Chad Baker-Mazara. 

Baker-Mazara finished the game with 29 points, four rebounds, three assists, and one steal on 10-of-22 shooting from the field, which included five three-pointers. USC guard Ezra Ausar also scored in double figures in the win for the Trojans, scoring 17 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks on 5-of-8 shooting from the field.

USC forward Chad Baker-Mazara (4) confers with USC head coach Eric Musselman during the second half of their game Sunday, January 25, 2026 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. USC beat Wisconsin 73-71. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The win over Wisconsin provided a massive boost to the Trojans' NCAA Tournament résumé as they improved to 15-5 on the season and 4-5 in the Big Ten before another pivotal road matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Wednesday. 

USC Trojans Current NCAA Tournament Projection

Jan 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Northwestern Wildcats in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In the aftermath of what was a wild weekend of college basketball filled with several top-25 upsets, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology projections. The Trojans are currently projected in the “Last Four In” category. Virginia Tech, New Mexico, and Texas are the other three teams projected to be the last four teams in the tournament.

The Indiana Hoosiers, who currently post a 13-7 overall record and are 4-5 in the Big Ten, are in the “First Four Out” category along with Seton Hall, Santa Clara, and TCU. 

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USC’s 83-81 win over the Seton Hall Pirates in the Maui Invitational Semifinal on Nov. 25 has continued to prove to be a key win for the Trojans as the season progresses. The Trojans are scheduled to play the Hoosiers at the Galen Center on Feb. 3, which could be a pivotal Big Ten matchup with major NCAA Tournament implications.  

While USC’s road win over Wisconsin was a key résumé builder for the Trojans, they took a hit with their home loss to the Northwestern Wildcats. Before losing to Northwestern, the Wildcats had yet to win a game against a Big Ten opponent. 

How USC Can Boost Tournament Chances

Jan 9, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Southern California Trojans forward Chad Baker-Mazara (4) looks on during the second half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

After finishing with a 17-18 overall record in their first year under coach Eric Musselman, USC entered the 2025-26 season with expectations to make the NCAA Tournament. While the Trojans have taken a major step forward this season, the Big Ten's competitiveness will make it challenging for USC to comfortably earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years.

The key for the Trojans moving forward into a crucial February Big Ten slate is to earn key road wins, in addition to winning the games they are favored in at the Galen Center. Earning another Big Ten road win over Iowa on Wednesday night will be massive for the Trojans confidence and their tournament résumé.

Iowa enters its home matchup against USC, posting a 14-5 overall record and is 4-4 in the Big Ten. The tipoff for the crucial Big Ten matchup between the Hawkeyes and Trojans is scheduled for 4 p.m. PT at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa, with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network.