Lincoln Riley Faces Pressure to Deliver at USC As Buyout Looms

Lincoln Riley enters the 2025 season with USC carrying one of the largest buyouts in college football. Oddsmakers at BetMGM list the Trojans as Big Ten long shots, and analysts say Riley must prove his program can finish games. For USC, 2025 is a "prove it" year.

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When Lincoln Riley arrived at USC in late 2021, the Trojans didn’t just hire an offensive wizard—they made one of the boldest financial bets in college football. Three years later, that bet feels heavier than ever.

Riley’s buyout is still reportedly estimated near $90 million, one of the largest in the sport.

That number surpasses even the infamous $76 million payout Texas A&M owed former Florida State and Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher when they cut ties in 2023.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Fisher’s deal was fully guaranteed, while Riley’s includes more complex language. Either way, USC is financially tethered to its head coach in a way that raises the stakes in 2025.

Oddsmakers see the tension too. According to BetMGM, USC holds +5000 national championship odds and +1700 Big Ten title odds, placing the Trojans fourth in the league behind Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon.

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

For a program with nine-figure money invested in its coach, that projection feels like faint praise.

What Analysts Are Saying

That gap between Riley’s contract and USC’s on-field reality was a focus on CBS Sports’ College Football Preview Show. 247Sports USC analyst Ryan Abraham framed it candidly.

“I kind of felt like it was going to be an eight-and-four type of season,” he said. “They’ve won convincingly the first two games…but it’s not going to matter until you get into Big Ten play.”

Sep 28, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Abraham pointed out that USC blew five fourth-quarter leads on the road in 2024. For him, the question is less about talent and more about proof of concept.

“There is a lot of pressure on Lincoln Riley,” he said, highlighting the program’s offseason investments in staff and structure, including keeping defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn from Penn State’s pursuit.

“Now the only thing left is to win games on Saturday.”

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley gestures during the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

That framing matters: USC didn’t just spend on Riley’s contract. The Trojans also backed him with resources across the board.

But investment only raises expectations, and Riley’s win totals have dipped each year since his 11-3 debut season.

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History Says 8–4 Isn’t the End

Would an 8–4 campaign actually trigger a coaching change? History suggests otherwise.

USC has rarely fired coaches strictly for records like 8–4 or 9–3. Steve Sarkisian, now head coach at Texas, was dismissed in 2015 for off-field issues, not performance. But as the Trojans coach he was 18-12 in two season.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Lane Kiffin, now leading Ole Miss, was let go midseason in 2013 after only one Bowl game appearance in four seasons with USC.

A game where they fell 21-7 to Georgia Tech and barely mustered over 200 yards of total offense.

The difference now is optics. With Riley, it’s not just about the record; it’s about trajectory. USC slipped from 11–3 in 2022 to 8–5 in 2023 to 7–6 in 2024.

Sep 7, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Utah State Aggies during the second quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images | Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Another plateau—or worse—would fuel louder questions, regardless of the buyout figure.

A Season of Proof

Through two weeks, USC looks sharper. Maiava has eliminated turnovers, the receivers look like reliable playmakers, and the defense has tightened up.

But as Abraham stressed, none of it will matter if the Trojans can’t deliver in conference play.

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

That’s why Purdue, Illinois, and Notre Dame loom as more than just games. They are measuring sticks for Riley’s ability to justify the contract and steady USC’s trajectory.

Because in Los Angeles, where buyouts are measured in tens of millions and legacies in crystal footballs, good isn’t good enough. And for Lincoln Riley, 2025 is the season to prove it.

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