Why Lincoln Riley is Unlikely to Leave USC Despite Penn State Rumors

As the coaching carousel continues to dominate college football headlines, USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has been rumored as a candidate for the Penn State Nittany Lions head coaching position despite his public commitment to USC.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC coach Lincoln Riley has spent the past several weeks shutting down speculation about leaving the Trojans. Still, his name continues circulating through the most high-profile openings in college football, including the head coaching vacancy at Penn State.

According to Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, Riley currently holds a four percent chance to land the Penn State Nittany Lions job. The number is small, but the trend is what raised eyebrows. On Nov. 30, Riley briefly surged to the top of the board at 21 percent, making him the favorite for the position at one point. Before dropping down to one percent, the chances of Riley becoming Penn State's next coach hovered at around four percent.

It was enough to reignite one question around Los Angeles: is Penn State actually trying to pry Riley away from USC?

Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft, right, laughs with head coach James Franklin following a 46-11 win over Nevada, Saturday, August 30, 2025, in State College, Pa. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rumors Surrounding Lincoln Riley

Penn State’s search has dragged longer than expected. After moving on from James Franklin who has since signed as the new coach for Virginia Tech Hokies, the Nittany Lions reportedly targeted Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti and Nebraska Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule as early candidates. Both have since signed extensions. 

Riley has already been tied to multiple vacancies this season, including the Florida Gators job and other high-profile openings, but that early chatter only intensified once Penn State reset its candidate board.

During The McShay Show, college football insider Todd McShay revealed that Riley is viewed internally as a “major target” for Penn State and pointed out a key detail: Riley is not represented by Jimmy Sexton. 

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (left) poses with Spirit of Troy marching band director James Vogel (center) and mascot Tommy Trojan after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

“I was told last night, ‘Don’t count out Lincoln Riley as a major target of Pat Kraft’s,’” McShay said. 

Sexton handled negotiations for Franklin at Penn State, a tenure that ended with high-cost extensions and heavy buyout structures. Kraft targeting a coach outside Sexton’s orbit caught McShay’s attention.

Why Riley Is Unlikely To Leave

Speculation is one thing. Reality is another. Riley signed a 10-year, $110 million contract in 2021. With such a lucrative contract,  his buyout is reported to exceed $90 million. That figure alone makes the odds of him leaving USC slim. 

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Few programs, even Penn State, would step into a nine-figure commitment for a coach still under contract through 2031. Riley has also taken steps toward shutting down the noise himself. When asked directly about his future when rumbling began around the Florida Gators job, Riley gave a clear answer.

“Oh yeah, 100 percent,” Riley said. “Like I said before, I’m right where I’m supposed to be. I think nothing other than what we’re building. I love being here.”

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley leads the Spirit of Troy marching band in a rendition of Tribute to Troy after teh game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

He delivered a similar message after the UCLA game, emphasizing that USC is where he wants to continue his long-term vision. The Trojans finished 9-3, a notable improvement over last year’s 7-6 season and return a roster built around his system and recruiting blueprint. There’s no incentive to walk away now, especially with USC set to take another step in its Big Ten transition next season with it's top-rated recruiting class. 

Riley is a national name. Big jobs will keep calling. But the financial math, the timing, and Riley’s public stance all point to the same conclusion: USC remains his home. 

Penn State may want Riley. But hiring him would require one of the most expensive coaching transactions in college football history. The rumor cycle will continue. The likelihood of a move will not.