The One Thing Holding USC Trojans Back From College Football Playoff

The USC Trojans face a must-win showdown against the Oregon Ducks, but their playoff hopes hinge on overcoming major home-road splits. With Jayden Maiava’s struggles away from the Coliseum and Oregon thriving at Autzen, USC must rise to the moment.

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava USC coach Lincoln Riley Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore Big Ten football playoff | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC has reached the point in the season where excuses don’t matter, margins don’t matter, and comfort certainly doesn’t matter. If the Trojans want any chance at keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive, they must win in Eugene on Saturday. And to do that, they’ll have to confront the biggest flaw on their résumé: they are not the same team when they leave the Coliseum.

Trojans’ coach Lincoln Riley has built one of the Big Ten’s most explosive home teams. Yet on the road, USC has struggled to carry any of that identity with them. And with the Oregon Ducks preparing to unleash Autzen Stadium at full volume, USC doesn’t have the luxury of another split-personality performance. Not with the season on the line.

It’s a Tale of Two Offenses

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Everything USC does offensively sharpens inside the Coliseum. They score 45.3 points per game, rip off 8.41 yards per play, average a dominant 6.67 yards per carry, and function like an elite unit when surrounded by their own crowd.

A big part of that is USC junior quarterback Jayden Maiava, who looks like a top-five passer in college football at home—75.7 percent completions, nearly 1,800 yards, 14 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and just three sacks. His 189.7 passer rating would sit near the top of the national leaderboard. All of that collapses once USC goes on the road.

The Trojans drop to 27.5 points per game, 6.08 yards per play, and only 4.07 yards per carry—a stunning falloff considering the consistency of USC sophomore running back King Miller, the engine of this offense. Third downs nosedive from 59 percent to 43.6 percent, and red-zone scoring plummets from 79% to 53%, one of the largest home–road gaps of any Big Ten offense. Maiava’s play shifts even more dramatically.

Away from Los Angeles, he completes just 57.4 percent of his passes, nearly a 20-point drop. His production dips to just over 1,100 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and eight sacks. His 129.7 passer rating mirrors a quarterback fighting the noise instead of feeding off it. On the road, his deep ball disappears, his rhythm gets disrupted, and the offense tightens.

That can’t happen in Eugene. Not against Oregon Ducks sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, who has been a different type of monster at Autzen—nearly 1,400 of his 2,200 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and only two picks at home. USC doesn’t need Maiava to be perfect. They need him to match a quarterback who rarely misses in his own building.

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The Defense Has the Same Split Personality

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive end Braylan Shelby (10) reacts after sacking Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC’s defense is dealing with the same identity crisis—tight, connected, and physical at home; inconsistent and vulnerable anywhere else.

At the Coliseum, they allow 19.2 points per game. Away from it, that jumps to 25.5. Opponents go from 5.22 yards per play to 6.08, and the run defense suffers most: 4.05 yards per carry at home becomes 4.88 on the road. Third-down stops disappear, red-zone stands collapse, and the unit that thrives off crowd energy becomes easier to push around. Against Oregon, that version of the defense won’t survive. The Ducks score the second highest points per game this season (39) behind only the Indiana Hoosiers (43.3) and have the best running attack in the conference averaging 233.6 yards on the ground. The Trojans will need to clean things on run defense otherwise this could be a reenactment of the game at South Bend to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish all over again.

Everything Comes Down to Saturday

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

If USC plays like the team it is at home, they can win this game and keep the playoff conversation alive. They have the playmakers. They have the scheme. They have the résumé-defining opportunity.

But the Trojans haven’t shown they can replicate that identity away from Los Angeles. Saturday will determine if this team is capable of more—or if the same road habits will derail their postseason dreams. If USC wants to stay alive in the playoff race, it starts by proving they can finally win somewhere other than the Coliseum.