Predicting USC Trojans Postseason Fate After Statement Upset Win

After their upset win over the Ohio State Buckeyes, can the USC Trojans make the College Football Playoff with two major tests remaining?

Oct 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 18 USC Trojans just pulled off the biggest win in their five seasons under coach Lincoln Riley, upsetting the then No. 2-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes 30-18 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night. 

The upset win created a magical scene at the Coliseum that only college football can provide, as USC fans stormed the field as rain fell on a cinematic Los Angeles night. It was like a scene taken right out of a Hollywood movie, and one USC fans hope will propel the Trojans to their first College Football Playoff appearance in program history. 

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley walks the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 31, 2026. Ohio State lost 30-18. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Trojans (7-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten), with three games remaining in the regular season, are back in the AP Top 25 and have the CFP in their sights, as winning the remainder of their games, including two against the currently top 10 teams, should give USC a spot in the CFP and, depending on how the standings shape out, a Big Ten championship berth in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Dec. 5. 

Entering their second bye week of the season before another pivotal road matchup against the No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington on Nov. 14, here’s a prediction for which bowl game the Trojans will play in following their upset win over the Buckeyes.

USC Bowl Projection: Why Trojans Still Fall Short Of CFP

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) passes during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 31, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Even with the win over the Buckeyes, I still think the Trojans fall short in either of their two remaining marquee games against No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers (Nov. 14) and No. 5 UCLA Bruins. The Trojans' Senior Day game against the Maryland Terrapins on Nov. 21 will be as easy as they come, as USC should send their seniors out in style with a dominating double-digit win at the Coliseum.

While the Hoosiers have shown their flaws as the Minnesota Golden Gophers nearly went on the road and upset Indiana, it’s hard to bet against coach Curt Cignetti’s squad, especially at home. 

The Bruins are also desperate to reclaim the Victory Bell as, despite the injury to their starting quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, UCLA is one of three remaining undefeated teams in college football, the others being the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes and the No. 3 Utah Utes. 

Oct 31, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Thomas Castellanos (4) after the game against the Arizona Wildcats at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Trojans will lose on the road to the Hoosiers, but upset the Bruins to end the regular season and retain the Victory Bell, finishing 9-3 for the second consecutive season. Falling short of the CFP, the Trojans will play in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29 for the second consecutive season, this time against the No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

Similar to the Trojans, the Red Raiders will likely be the first team in their conference, the Big 12, left out of the CFP, meaning the two schools will play in the Alamo Bowl. If the No. 7 BYU Cougars lose to Utah on Nov. 7 in the Holy War and the Red Raiders win out in the regular season, Texas Tech, with one road loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats, could still make the CFP with a loss in the Big 12 championship. For now, we’ll assume that Utah and BYU both represent the Big 12 in the CFP.   

Lincoln Riley’s Early Coaching Career At Texas Tech

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley walks off the field after the game against the Oregon Ducks at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Trojans do match up with the Red Raiders in the Alamo Bowl, Riley will be playing against his alma mater. Riley spent six years on former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach’s coaching staff, starting as a student assistant before working his way up to be a wide receivers coach. 

The skills that Riley learned under Leach shaped his coaching career, which has spanned four schools: the Texas Tech Red Raiders, East Carolina Pirates, Oklahoma Sooners, and USC Trojans.

Playing against his alma mater would certainly be a special moment for Riley. This time, the Trojans look to win the Alamo Bowl after losing 30-27 in last year’s Alamo Bowl to the TCU Horned Frogs.

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