USC Bowl Projection Looms Large With Questions About Lincoln Riley's Future

Could failing to make the College Football Playoff again be the end of Lincoln Riley's tenure with the USC Trojans?

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley on the field during warm ups before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The USC Trojans missed a golden opportunity to improve their College Football Playoff chances on Saturday night in Madison, falling 24-7 to the No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. 

The Trojans' high-powered offense had no answer for the Badgers' defense, helping coach Luke Fickell earn his most signature win with Wisconsin. With the dust officially settled from their upset loss to the Badgers, the Trojans are outside the AP Top 25 Poll for the first time this season, and their CFP chances are beginning to dwindle.

Sep 4, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after the game against the Fresno State Bulldogs at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Four games remain on the Trojans’ schedule, with three of those matchups coming against teams currently ranked in the top 10: the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (Oct. 31), No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers (Nov. 14), and the No. 7 UCLA Bruins (Nov. 28). The recent ESPN bowl projections by Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura suggest the Trojans will fall short in these games and miss the CFP in their fifth season under coach Lincoln Riley. 

USC Trojans Current Bowl Projections  

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley looks on from the sideline during the first quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bonagura and Schlabach have mixed projections on the Trojans' potential bowl game after Saturday night’s loss to the Badgers. Bonagura projects that the Trojans will face Riley’s old team, the Oklahoma Sooners, in the Las Vegas Bowl.

It would be the Trojans' second appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl in the last three seasons, defeating the Texas A&M Aggies 35-31 in 2024. Schlabach projects that, for the second consecutive season, the Trojans will appear in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, this time facing the No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Last season, the Trojans faced the TCU Horned Frogs in the Alamo Bowl, losing 30-27 in overtime. 

What Missing College Football Playoff Could Mean For Lincoln Riley

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley walks off the field after the game against the Oregon Ducks at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Saturday’s loss to the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium felt like the same old Trojans under Riley, failing to win a Big Ten road game as a favorite. Now the Trojans (6-2 overall, 3-2 Big Ten) are in a tough spot ahead of their home showdown at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1 overall, 4-0 Big Ten) on Halloween night 

Looking at what has happened in the Big Ten this season, with the recent injury to Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin, the Indiana Hoosiers showing their flaws, and the Ducks falling short of expectations with the injury to Dante Moore, it feels like the Trojans are blowing a perfect opportunity to break through and reach the CFP. Not to mention, they have the No. 1 recruiting class on their roster this season. 

Just look crosstown at the UCLA Bruins. First-year coach Bob Chesney has a Bruins team that won three games against one of the three undefeated teams remaining in the country, the others being the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes and No. 6 Utah Utes.

Oct 24, 2026; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney looks on during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It looks like even with quarterback Nico Iamaleava's injury and a favorable schedule, the Bruins are well on their way to securing a spot in the Big Ten championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec. 5 in Indianapolis and a CFP, something Riley has failed to do in his five seasons. 

Watching the Bruins secure their spot in the CFP and the Trojans losing all three of their remaining ranked matchups to finish at 7-5 could be enough for USC to say enough is enough and move on from Riley.

Riley’s contract buyout with the Trojans is currently around $70 million, meaning USC would have to pay a major price to move on from him. Losing on Saturday night to a Buckeyes team featuring backup quarterback Luke Fahey making his first career start could also be enough for the Trojans to let Riley go before the season. That, however, remains to be seen depending on the Trojans' result Saturday night against the Buckeyes. 

USC Trojans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Kickoff Time, Betting Odds

Oct 24, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) drops back to pass against the Wisconsin Badgers during the first half at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Wahl-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Trojans enter Saturday night’s clash with the Buckeyes as a seven-point underdog, per the DraftKings Sportsbook betting odds. USC and Ohio State will kick off at the Coliseum at 4:30 p.m. PT, with the game broadcast on NBC.

Believe it or not, this will be the Trojans' fifth straight game on NBC, a streak that started back on Sept. 26 with their 41-27 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. The Trojans are 2-2 in that span, with wins over the Washington Huskies and Penn State Nittany Lions.  

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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