USC Trojans Tagged as Big Ten 'Dark Horse' in College Football Playoff Race

USC was labeled the Big Ten’s biggest “enigma” in ESPN’s latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch. Despite top-five playoff odds and a dominant offense, the Trojans were overshadowed by Illinois team to watch — setting up a pivotal week 5 clash between the two unbeaten programs.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

ESPN has made its stance clear: USC may be one of college football’s most explosive teams, but they’re also the Big Ten’s biggest enigma.

In the network’s latest CFP Bubble Watch, the Trojans were labeled a wild card despite boasting the nation’s fifth-best playoff odds.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with Southern California Trojans quarterback Husan Longstreet (4) in the second half against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Their looming week 5 showdown with Illinois will offer the clearest test yet of USC’s potential to shake up the Big Ten hierarchy.

USC: The Enigma with Firepower

On paper, USC looks like a juggernaut. Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s offense is averaging 55 points and 604 total yards per game, splitting the damage almost evenly between the run and pass.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been sharp in his first full season under center, posting 989 passing yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 68.6% completion rate. His 215.5 passer rating ranks among the nation’s best.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) is tackled by Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Hudauri Hines (4) during the second quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Behind him, the ground game has been just as dangerous. Waymond Jordan is averaging over 95 yards per game and 7.0 yards per carry, helping the Trojans rack up 12 rushing touchdowns in just three games.

And when Maiava looks downfield, he has one of the country’s most reliable targets in Makai Lemon, already with 311 receiving yards.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) carries the ball against Missouri State Bears linebacker Dylan Dixson (9) and linebacker Dylan Dixson (9) in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

This balance is why ESPN’s analytics still give USC a 57.9 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff — fifth-best in the nation.

The Schedule Factor

So why the “enigma” label? It comes down to schedule perception and history.

USC avoids Ohio State and Penn State in the regular season but faces a daunting stretch that includes Illinois, Michigan, and rival Notre Dame.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Their November trip to Oregon looms largest as ESPN currently projects that as the Trojans’ only loss.

The suggestion is simple: USC is good enough to beat anyone on paper, but the narrative won’t shift until they prove it against another ranked Big Ten contender.

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Illinois: The Contrast and the Challenge

That’s where Illinois enters the picture. Ironically, ESPN pegged the Illini — not the Trojans — as the Big Ten’s “team to watch.”

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) during an NCAA game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Imageses | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois sits 3-0 behind a disciplined, efficient identity. They’re scoring 45 points per game while allowing just 7.3, thanks to a defense that already has 10 sacks and five forced fumbles.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been ruthlessly efficient with 709 yards, eight touchdowns, and a 72% completion rate.

Statistically, Illinois plays a more controlled game, leaning on defensive pressure and red-zone consistency (16 of 18 scoring trips). They don’t explode like USC, but they strangle opponents.

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) runs the ball against the Western Illinois Leathernecks during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

That sets up a fascinating clash: USC’s high-octane offense versus Illinois’ suffocating defense.

Why USC Holds the Edge

While Illinois deserves respect, the Trojans have the firepower to flip this narrative. Illinois has yet to face a quarterback as efficient or receivers as dynamic as Maiava and Lemon.

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley greets quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC’s offensive line has been steady, and their defense — led by linebacker Eric Gentry and ball-hawk safety Bishop Fitzgerald (three interceptions) — has shown it can create momentum-shifting plays of its own.

For all the “enigma” talk, USC has been remarkably consistent through three weeks. If the Trojans carry that same balance into Champaign, their playoff case won’t just be built on analytics — it’ll be validated by results.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans running back Waymond Jordan (2) and USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) celebrate a touchdown during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Bubble Watch called USC the Big Ten’s wild card, but that doesn’t mean the Trojans are being counted out. Quite the opposite.

With a clean run into their late-November showdown at Oregon, Lincoln Riley’s team could hold the inside track to the Playoff.

The Illinois game isn’t just another road test — it’s a chance for USC to prove the “enigma” label belongs in the past tense.