Big Ten Projection Raises Questions About USC Trojans' Playoff Chances

Can the USC Trojans still make the College Football Playoff with this latest projection in the Big Ten?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before an NCAA football game with the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Big Ten conference has produced the last three national champions: the Michigan Wolverines (2023), Ohio State Buckeyes (2024), and Indiana Hoosiers (2025). Entering the 2026 season, the conference is looking to keep that streak alive as several Big Ten teams will be fighting for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Coach Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans are one of those several teams. The Trojans are coming off a 9-4 overall record in 2025, and with the return of star quarterback Jayden Maiava, USC fans hope that the 2026 season is the year they finally break through.

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Unfortunately for USC, according to the latest projections by ESPN, the Trojans could be set up for yet another season in which they fall short of reaching the CFP. USC is projected to be the No. 4-ranked team in the Big Ten behind the Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 1), Oregon Ducks (No. 2), and the Indiana Hoosiers (No. 3).

Would This Be Enough For USC Trojans to Make College Football Playoff?

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) carries the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Could finishing fourth in the Big Ten be enough for the Trojans to make the CFP? The Trojans will face all three teams projected to finish in front of them, including matchups at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum against the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks. The Trojans face the Indiana Hoosiers on the road in Bloomington in November.

Assuming the Trojans lose all three of those games, they will finish with the same record as last season, at 9-3, which likely won’t be enough for USC to make the CFP. USC will need to win at least one of those three matchups to make the CFP for the first time in program history.

The Trojans enter the 2026 season with one of the most explosive offenses in college football, which is talented enough to compete with anyone, but the biggest key will be their defense. Defense has held the Trojans back from making the CFP, and with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, their consistency defensively could improve. 

Why USC's Defense Is Key to Success

Oct 16, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson during the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

With the Trojans expected to face a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule for the 2026 season, the performance of USC’s defense will be critical in the team reaching the CFP. In addition to the three marquee games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana, the Trojans will also face the Penn State Nittany Lions and UCLA Bruins on the road.

A home matchup against the Washington Huskies and quarterback Demond Williams Jr. will also present a challenge for the Trojans. USC is scheduled to open its 2026 season on Aug. 29 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum against the San Jose State Spartans, before two other non-conference matchups against the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

The kickoff for the season opener between the Trojans and Spartans is scheduled for 12 p.m. PT at the Coliseum with the game broadcast on NBC.

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