Why Analytics Say About USC's College Football Playoff Chances

With marquee matchups still ahead, advanced metrics show that the USC Trojans still have a path to the College Football Playoff — but Lincoln Riley’s team must win out amidst a tough November schedule.

Dec 27, 2023; San Diego, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts in the second half against the Louisville Cardinals during the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The No. 19 USC Trojans might be sitting at 6-2, but the numbers say the Trojans are far from out of the College Football Playoff race. In fact, advanced analytics show coach Lincoln Riley’s squad has a real shot—if they win out.

Advanced Metrics Favor the Trojans

Oct 21, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Utah Utes in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff committee placed USC barely within the top-20 in its initial rankings, but that figure undersells how well the Trojans have performed by the numbers. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings list USC 16th nationally, while Brian Fremeau’s FEI efficiency metrics slot them 13th overall—seven spots higher than the CFP committee’s evaluation.

The 2025 Trojans are positioned to climb quickly if they handle business down the stretch. With matchups remaining against Northwestern, No. 9 Oregon Ducks, No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes, and rival UCLA Bruins, the Trojans have the schedule strength and opportunity to surge.

In Fremeau’s breakdown, USC ranks 6th in Offensive FEI (OFEI) but 51st in Defensive FEI (DFEI), mirroring programs like the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels that rely on dynamic scoring rather than lockdown defense. That profile won’t impress purists, but it’s proof that USC’s offensive ceiling can carry them through meaningful November games if they stay efficient.

The Path Is Narrow — But Real

Sep 9, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley gestures during the game against the Stanford Cardinal at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

To make the 12-team playoff, USC doesn’t need chaos—they just need to control their own lane. The Ducks and Hawkeyes both sit ahead of the Trojans in the rankings, and wins over both would provide exactly the kind of résumé boost the committee values.

A home win over Northwestern on Friday night would push USC to 7-2 overall and 5-1 in Big Ten play. That’s the easy part. The real test comes November 22 in Eugene, where the Trojans face coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks in what could double as a pseudo–playoff elimination game. The Ducks are one of only three teams nationally ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making this matchup USC’s biggest opportunity to prove legitimacy.

If quarterback Jayden Maiava can outduel Oregon’s Dante Moore in what projects as a shootout, USC’s national stock will skyrocket. Their recent win in Nebraska’s “blackout” atmosphere proved they’re capable of surviving tough road environments—something previous Trojan teams under Riley struggled with.

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Strength of Schedule Will Do the Talking

Sep 2, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Nevada Wolf Pack in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Here’s what’s working in USC’s favor: nearly every team ahead of them still has at least one ranked opponent left. The No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs must still face the No. 11 Texas Longhorns. The No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Rebels both close with rivalry games. Meanwhile, the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies, and several other top programs will face their own November tests.

USC’s four-game gauntlet gives them multiple chances to jump those teams in real time. The Big Ten standings also play into the Trojans’ favor. Sitting at 4-1 in conference play, USC could still reach the Big Ten Championship with a win over Iowa on November 15—another ranked opportunity the metrics will reward heavily.

If they win out, the combination of a 10-2 record, top-15 efficiency marks, and marquee victories would make the Trojans nearly impossible to ignore in the final CFP selection.

For now, it’s simple: win out, and the numbers do the rest. Lose one, and the conversation ends. With a top-ranked offense, a favorable schedule matrix, and two high-profile games remaining, USC’s playoff dream is still alive—barely, but measurably. And in November, that’s all that matters.