Why USC Trojans are Dark Horse Contender to Make College Football Playoff

At 6–2, the USC Trojans remain alive in the College Football Playoff race — but a November gauntlet featuring the Iowa Hawkeyes and Oregon Ducks will determine if they can sneak into the 12-team field.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans aren’t finished—not by a long shot. Sitting at 6–2 and ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll, USC remains one of college football’s most dangerous dark horses heading into November. With pivotal matchups against the Iowa Hawkeyes and the No. 6 Oregon Ducks still on the schedule, the Trojans have a clear—if difficult—path to crash the College Football Playoff picture at 10–2.

Even after a shaky midseason stretch, Lincoln Riley’s group is finding ways to stay alive. The Trojans have won two of their last three, including a gritty 21–17 victory over Nebraska, and continue to show progress on both sides of the ball. They’re still one of just four one-loss teams in Big Ten play, joining No. 6 Oregon, No. 21 Michigan, and Iowa.

The Road Ahead

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

November will define USC’s season—and its postseason hopes. The Trojans close with Northwestern, Iowa, at Oregon, and UCLA, a slate that will test their playoff viability and mental toughness.

Pro Football Focus analyst Dalton Wasserman outlined the scenario on The PFF College Football Show:

“If USC ends up 10–2, they win these last four games, they’re going to the playoff because their two losses are down to the wire against Illinois and at Notre Dame, who’s also very good. You win those last four with those wins against Iowa and Oregon, who are also playoff contenders, they might be a team that sneaks in.”

Wasserman added that head-to-head results could give USC the edge if it comes down to a tiebreaker with Oregon, echoing past examples like the Notre Dame–Miami debates of old. His co-host Max Chadwick agreed, calling USC “a potential playoff sleeper” entering the home stretch.

For a program still rebuilding its Big Ten identity, this stretch represents both the challenge and opportunity Riley envisioned when he took the job.

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Firepower Still Intact

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Even after back-to-back modest passing games, quarterback Jayden Maiava remains among the nation’s most productive passers. The sophomore ranks 14th in passing yards (2,315) and 12th in passer rating (164.4), continuing to drive an offense that can strike quickly.

Receiver Makai Lemon continues to shine as one of the Big Ten’s top weapons, sitting sixth nationally in receiving yards (776), while running back King Miller has helped balance the attack with steady physicality in the run game.

Defensively, USC has quietly turned a corner. The Trojans have held opponents to 21 points or fewer in five of eight contests—and they’re undefeated in those games. That kind of consistency could prove pivotal against Iowa’s physical style and Oregon’s high-powered offense.

Win Out, and the Chaos Follows

Nov 2, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches pregame warmups against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

At 6–2, the math is simple but steep: win the final four, and USC finishes 10–2 with marquee victories over two Top 25 programs. That résumé, combined with the right chaos across the nation, could push them into legitimate playoff contention—especially if the Big Ten becomes a battlefield of two-loss contenders.