USC Trojans Receive Good News About College Football Playoff Chances

USC sits at No. 20 in ESPN’s College Football Playoff projections with a 21-percent chance to make the 12-team field. Lincoln Riley and the Trojans have some ground to make up.

Coming off a loss to Illinois, the Trojans have the bye week to regroup and get players like junior wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane and senior cornerback Kamari Ramsey back healthy.

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava coach Lincoln Riley college football playoff Big Ten football — Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

But after, USC enters a pivotal second-half stretch that includes Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon—matchups that could determine whether USC climbs into contention or fades from the bracket conversation.

Big Ten Powers Dominate the Odds

One of the biggest takeaways from the updated playoff list is how much the Big Ten is driving the conversation.

Oregon and Ohio State share the nation’s best odds, while Indiana continues to be one of the surprise stories of the season with the fourth-best mark.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore coach Dan Lanning Big Ten Football College football playoffs — Oregon quarterback Dante Moore warms up as the Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Sept. 6, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan, despite a rocky start, still sits in the middle of the pack tied with Memphis and Missouri.

For USC, that Big Ten dominance cuts both ways. On one hand, the presence of so many high-ranked conference foes makes the path to playoff relevance much tougher.

On the other, it also ensures USC has multiple opportunities to boost its resume if it can find a way to navigate the schedule.

A Pivotal Two-Week Stretch Looms

The bye comes at the right time. After a bruising loss to Illinois, the Trojans return to the Coliseum to host Michigan—a game that carries both playoff and perception stakes.

A win would give USC a chance at jumping into the top-15 of the playoff odds and reasserting themselves as legitimate players in the Big Ten race.

The schedule doesn’t ease up. The following week brings Notre Dame, a team still ranked in the top 25 despite a sluggish start.

Rivalry games are rarely straightforward, and for USC, it will be another chance to bank a statement win in front of the selection committee.

Later this season, Oregon looms large.

The Ducks are considered one of the safest bets for the playoff, and if USC can go into Eugene and play spoiler, it would not only reshape their own trajectory but also alter the entire Big Ten picture.

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What USC Needs to Do

The numbers are simple—USC doesn’t have to be the best team in the country to reach the playoff, but it does need to rise from 20th to at least 12th to secure one of the 12 coveted spots.

With seven at-large bids available, a program like USC still has flexibility if it can pile up enough quality wins.

That said, the Trojans will have to survive what has already proven to be a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule.

Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan are all currently in the national mix.

Add in SEC powerhouses Alabama, Georgia, and Texas—along with the Miami Hurricanes from the ACC and Big 12 dark horses like Texas Tech and BYU—and the margin for error is razor thin.

The Bottom Line

For USC, the season isn’t over—it’s only just beginning. Sitting at 20th might look like a setback, but the Trojans are uniquely positioned with ranked opponents still on the schedule.

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley quarterback Jayden Maiava Big Ten Football College Football Playoff — Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If they can stay healthy, clean up mistakes, and capitalize on the bye-week reset, Lincoln Riley’s group still controls enough of its own destiny to fight into the playoff bracket.

The challenge is clear: turn opportunities into wins. Anything less, and the Trojans risk watching another postseason play out from the sidelines.