Early Top-25 Rankings Should Give USC Trojans Fans Faith in Offseason Moves

Despite an underwhelming 2025 finish, one analyst believes USC Trojans' offseason trajectory has coach Lincoln Riley in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With the 2025 college football season now in the rearview mirror, offseason narratives have already begun to take shape. Early projections are often imperfect, but they reveal something more important than accuracy: belief. According to college football analyst Josh Pate, belief is beginning to return around the USC Trojans.

On Sunday night’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, Pate released his first “Way-Too-Early” Top 25 for the 2026 season. USC checked in at No. 11, an eye-catching placement for a team that missed the College Football Playoff and closed its year with a bowl loss to TCU.

Josh Pate’s Way-Too-Early Rankings

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

1. Notre Dame
2. Texas
3. Indiana
4. Ohio State
5. Oregon
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Texas A&M
9. Oklahoma
10. LSU
11. USC
12. Texas Tech
13. Alabama
14. BYU
15. Penn State

USC’s placement just ahead of Alabama and Texas Tech immediately stood out. Pate’s explanation centered on faith in the program’s direction under Lincoln Riley, improved defensive trajectory, and the value of proven quarterback play, an essential theme throughout his rankings.

Jayden Maiava’s Return Anchors the Projection

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the first half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

At the center of USC’s case is Jayden Maiava. Pate consistently prioritizes teams with returning, established quarterbacks this early in the calendar, and Maiava checks every box.

Maiava elected to return for a third season after a breakout year in Riley’s system. He finished 2025 leading the nation with a 91.2 quarterback rating, throwing for 3,711 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while completing 65.8 percent of his passes. While not Heisman-level production, it was efficient and productive, especially within a first full season as the starter.

Just as important, Maiava proved capable of elevating those around him. He helped fuel a Biletnikoff Award-winning season from Makai Lemon and now returns with continuity, command, and comfort in Riley’s offense. That stability alone raises USC’s floor.

MORE: Predicting the USC Trojans' Offensive Depth Chart for Next Season

MORE: Los Angeles Rams Linked to USC Trojans in Upcoming NFL Draft

MORE: Early Prediction For USC Trojans' Starting Defense

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!

Faith in the Freshman Class

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class adds another layer to Pate’s confidence. Headlined by five-star linebacker Luke Wafle, the class represents a major talent infusion following a portal-heavy offseason.

The Trojans lost 22 players to transfers, including high-profile departures at wide receiver and defensive back. But instead of scrambling, USC leaned into high school recruiting volume and quality, signing 35 freshmen. That doesn’t mean 15 instant starters, but it does mean depth, competition, and upside.

Several newcomers are positioned to contribute early. Five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pope joins a veteran offensive line with all five starters returning. Five-star defensive lineman Jaimeon Winfield adds interior juice and can take the place of Devan Thompkins who transferred to Alabama.

Four-star tight end Mark Bowman bolsters a developing pass-catching group that will be heavily relying on growth from rising sophomore wide receiver Tanook Hines and a deep receiver class. Combined with Riley’s track record of developing skill talent, the roster balance is improving.

Home Run Defensive Coordinator Hire In Gary Patterson

Oct 23, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson reacts during the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The most telling move of USC’s offseason came on defense. After D'Anton Lynn departed for Penn State, USC didn’t chase novelty. It chased experience. Enter Gary Patterson.

Patterson arrives in Los Angeles as a Hall of Fame coach with 181 career wins at TCU, two unbeaten regular seasons, and a reputation for defensive structure. USC’s defensive progression is already measurable, allowing 34.4 points per game in 2023, 24.1 in 2024, and 23.0 last season, but it hasn’t yet reached Big Ten-caliber dominance.

Patterson’s hire isn’t about reinvention. It’s about refinement. His film study habits, schematic discipline, and decades of experience give USC a higher defensive ceiling than it’s had under Riley.

USC still has questions to answer. Production must be replaced. Youth must grow up quickly. But the formula, returning quarterback, elite recruiting, and a proven defensive architect, is real. That’s why Pate’s No. 11 ranking isn’t hype. It’s projection. And for the first time in a while, it doesn’t feel foolish to believe USC might justify it.