How Close USC Came to Crashing the College Football Playoff

The USC Trojans finished the season at No. 16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. How close were USC coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans from making the 12-team field? Not very, considering No. 11 Notre Dame was left out.

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The final rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee have been released and the 12-team bracket is set. The swapping of No. 10 Miami over No. 11 Notre Dame is arguably the biggest story of the day, but a number of teams received their final ranking on Sunday.

No. 16 USC was effectively eliminated from the CFP before Sunday's release, but the Trojans nearly finishing as a top-15 team in the country is a step in the right direction for USC coach Lincoln Riley and his program. USC ended the regular season with three losses, two to top-ranked teams in No. 5 Oregon and No. 11 Notre Dame, meaning the Trojans were on the cusp of postseason consideration.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates with his players after winning a NCAA football game 70-7 against Syracuse at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The AP Poll will be updated throughout the postseason, but USC's regular season ranking has the Trojans as the fourth-highest ranked team from the Big Ten. The top-three teams, No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, and Oregon, are all in the top five. Behind USC from the conference is No. 18 Michigan and No. 23 Iowa, two of the Trojan's biggest wins of the year.

College Football Playoff Final Top 25 Rankings

1. Indiana (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Texas Tech (3)
5. Oregon (5)
6. Ole Miss (6)
7. Texas A&M (7)
8. Oklahoma (8)
9. Alabama (9)
10. Miami (10)
11. Notre Dame
12. BYU
13. Texas
14. Vanderbilt
15. Utah
16. USC
17. Arizona
18. Michigan
19. Virginia
20. Tulane (11)
21. Houston
22. Georgia Tech
23. Iowa
24. James Madison (12)
25. North Texas

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How Close was USC?

How close was USC to actually making the Playoff? The Trojans were certainly in striking distance before losing to Oregon, but USC's loss to Illinois might have kept the Trojans out even with only two losses.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Because the Trojans lost to Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish likely would have blocked USC from moving any higher, if they had the same amount of losses. Notre Dame was left out of the CFP in one of the more surprising moves by the Selection Committee on Sunday, meaning the Trojans still have a ways to go before seriously contending for another national championship.

Instead, USC is set to face off against TCU in the Alamo Bowl, per On3's Brett McMurphy. The Alamo Bowl is scheduled for Dec. 30 at 6 p.m. PT. With the game being played in San Antonio, Texas, the Horned Frogs are expected to have a crowd advantage over USC. Can the Trojans get the job done in the bowl game and pick up a 10th win?

While the page turns to the bowl game, the Trojans are focused on 2026 after signing the top-ranked recruiting class during the Early Signing Period in December.