Why USC Trojans Remain Outside of College Football Playoff Picture

The USC Trojans are 3-0 to start the 2025 season. What are the Trojans' current chances of making the College Football Playoff as they enter a gauntlet of a schedule? According to one analyst, USC has work to do in order to enter the CFP picture.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff picture is slowly coming into form heading into week 4 of the season. Several teams that were in contention to make the playoffs at the start of the season, like Notre Dame and Clemson, have fallen flat, while new contenders have emerged, including Georgia Tech, Iowa State, and Texas A&M.

The USC Trojans have started the season with a 3-0 record with wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue. Earning a spot in the playoffs this season would be a successful year for coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans. Heading into week 4, where do the Trojans land in terms of their chances to earn a spot in the 12-team playoff bracket?

USC Trojans on CFP Bubble

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The latest CFP bubble watch from ESPN's Heather Dinich details the chances that each power four conference team and favorites from the group of five have at making the playoff.

According to Dinich, USC remains in the "work to do" category with other Big Ten teams, including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Nebraska. Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon remain the favorites out of the Big Ten to make the playoff, as the three are in the "would be in" category.

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USC's Upcoming Schedule Gauntlet

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) talks with Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

After three wins that featured impressive offensive performances to start the year, the gauntlet of USC's season begins this Saturday against Michigan State at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Following the matchup against the Spartans, the Trojans will face a tough four-game stretch, which includes road trips to No. 9 Illinois (Sept. 27), No. 24 Notre Dame (Oct. 18), and Nebraska (Nov. 1). USC also has a home matchup against No. 21 Michigan on Oct. 11.

The No. 25 Trojans are favored in all of those four games and are projected to win all of their matchups up until they play the No. 6-ranked Oregon Ducks on Nov. 22. An undefeated streak in all four of those games would all but guarantee potentially playing for a Big Ten Championship and a spot in the playoff. That is, of course, if the Trojans don't slip up in their other game at home against Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, and UCLA.

At minimum, the Trojans would have to lose one game in the next five to still be in contention for the 12-team playoff bracket.

What Would A Playoff Appearance Mean For USC?

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

A playoff appearance would be memorable for USC fans and an incredible achievement for coach Lincoln Riley and the program, given how dissapointing the last two seasons have been for the Trojans.

Even competing for a spot in the CFP would give Riley confidence among the fanbase and put them in a great position entering next season. The way things stand right now, anything less than 9-3, could be considered a disappointment for USC.