One Interesting Fact About USC Quarterback Jayden Maiava's Heisman Trophy Odds

How real are USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava's chances of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026?

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has the 12th-best odds of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026, according to oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook. For a school like USC that has produced the most winners of the award, combined with Trojans coach Lincoln Riley and the success of his Heisman-winning quarterbacks, are Maiava's odds too low?

How Much Does Quarterback Rating Matter?

Maiava's adjusted total quarterback rating of 91.2 led the nation in 2025, yet he is outside of the top 10 favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (right) talks with quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Interestingly, Maiava's quarterback rating of 91.2 is one tenth away from former Oregon Ducks quarterback and Heisman winner Marcus Mariot's rating of 91.3 in 2014. In 2012, former Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel won the award with an adjusted quarterback rating of 91.3 as well.

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Some of the highest marks in college football history include Heisman-winning seasons from former LSU quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, former USC quarterback Caleb Williams won the prestigious award with an adjusted quarterback rating of 87.7, good for No. 45 of all time. In his Heisman season in 2021, former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young finished with a rating of 87.6, one place behind Williams.

Former Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza recently won the Heisman as well as the College Football Playoff National Championship, and his adjusted quarterback rating of 88.4 ranks 36th all time.

Jan 24, 2026; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) holds the Heisman Trophy with Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, during the Indiana Football College Football Playoff National Championship celebration and parade at Memorial Stadium. | Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Clearly, a quarterback's rating and efficiency is not the biggest factor for Heisman voters. Maiava had the fifth-most passing yards in 2025 with 3,711, completing 65.8 percent of his passes. If he can replicate his production in 2026 with a less-experienced wide receiver corps, Maiava should belong in the conversation for the Heisman.

While any one stat in particular is hard to pinpoint, perhaps one of the biggest is wins.

Given USC's schedule, one that includes Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana, the Trojans will have to remain relevant in order for Maiava to have a shot at becoming the program's ninth winner of the Heisman Trophy. That means winning games.

USC has yet to reach the College Football Playoff since it expanded to four teams in 2014, and Riley has yet to reach the postseason with the Trojans. Can Maiava lead USC into the 12-team field after the 2026 season?

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches in the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In the previous CFP, Alabama was the only three-loss team to make the bracket after the Crimson Tide lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Miami and Oklahoma were the only two-loss teams to play in the CFP, demonstrating how thin the margin for error is for every team.

2026 Heisman Trophy Betting Odds

Per FanDuel, here are the players with better odds of winning the Heisman than Maiava:

1. +800 CJ Carr, Notre Dame quarterback
2. +950 Arch Manning, Texas quarterback
3. +1100 Josh Hoover, Indiana quarterback
4. +1300 Dante Moore, Oregon quarterback
4. +1300 Julian Sayin, Ohio State quarterback
4. +1300 Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State wide receiver
7. +1500 Darian Mensah, Miami quarterback
8. +1600 Gunner Stockton, Georgia quarterback
8. +1600 Sam Leavitt, LSU quarterback
10. +2200 Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech quarterback
11. +2500 Marcel Reed, Texas A&M quarterback
12. +2700 Jayden Maiava

Maiava might be an underdog from a betting odds perspective, but his performances in USC's biggest matchups could shake up the Heisman race.