Jayden Maiava Faces a New Challenger in California’s Quarterback Race

In a way-too-early look at the 2026 Heisman race, USC Trojans' Jayden Maiava was ranked outside the top 10 and behind California Golden Bears sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, raising questions about who truly holds the quarterback crown in California.

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

In a way-too-early look at the 2026 Heisman Trophy race, ESPN college football writer Mark Schlabach included 18 realistic contenders. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava made the list, but his placement may create a bit of controversy. Slotted 14th overall, Maiava was ranked behind nine other quarterbacks and, most notably, behind Cal sophomore quarterback Jaron‑Keawe Sagapolutele, making him ESPN’s second-best quarterback in the state of California. As farfetched as this may look on the surface, there is an argument to be made here.

Maiava’s 2025 season was one of the most productive first years by a Big Ten quarterback. He threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns, completed nearly 66 percent of his passes, and finished with a quarterback rating of 89.9, second best nationally. He led the Big Ten in passing yards while piloting one of the country’s most explosive offenses under coach Lincoln Riley.

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the first half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Sagapolutele’s freshman season at California Golden Bears was impressive in its own right. He passed for 3,454 yards with 18 touchdowns, added four rushing scores, and became only the second true freshman in FBS history to throw for 200 yards in each of his first 11 starts. But the statistical gap and the context still leans USC’s way.

What Makes Maiava Better Right Now

The clearest separator between the two quarterbacks is how they create offense. Maiava operated as an aggressor. USC pushed the ball vertically, generated chunk plays, and leaned into explosive scoring opportunities.

Maiava averaged nearly ten yards per completed pass and six games with completed passes of 50 yards or more. His higher interception total (10) reflected aggressiveness, not inefficiency. He also added value as a short-yardage runner, scoring three rushing touchdowns on 73 carries.

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during the first half against the Georgia Southern Eagles at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Sagapolutele, by contrast, functioned as a high-volume distributor. Cal leaned on him to sustain drives, manage down-and-distance, and keep the offense on schedule. Sagapolutele averaged seven yards per completed attempt and only had two passes of 50-plus yards all season.

His ball security was slightly better, but it came with trade-offs: 30 sacks taken, fewer downfield shots, and a passer rating outside the national top 60 once efficiency was adjusted. Both were productive. Only one consistently tilted the field.

MORE: National Analyst Opens Up About Direction of USC Under Chad Bowden

MORE: Early Big Ten Projections Spell Trouble For USC, Lincoln Riley

MORE: Uchenna Nwosu Gets Real On Former USC Trojans' Super Bowl Win With Seahawks

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!

Supporting Casts Heading in Opposite Directions

Part of ESPN’s ranking likely reflects trajectory rather than resume. Sagapolutele enters 2026 with a rebuilt offensive line and veteran pass catchers, including transfers like former Ohio Bobcats wide receiver Chase Hendricks, former Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Ian Strong, and former New Mexico Lobos tight end Dorian Thomas.

Hendricks and Strong come in as seasoned fourth-year pass catchers combining for a career 333 receptions, 3,284 yards receiving and 23 touchdown receptions over 75 games and 51 starts. While Thomas, who was the 6th ranked tight end in the transfer portal, came had a breakout season in 2025 with career highs with 56 catches and 560 yards receiving to rank as the third and eighth most among the nation's FBS tight ends.

Nov 29, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) before the game against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Maiava faces the opposite challenge. USC lost four of its top five pass catchers from last season, including Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, and Lake McRee who are headed to the NFL. Only Tanook Hines returns with double-digit receptions. The Trojans will rely heavily on a talented but young group headlined by Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Ethan Feaster, Trent Mosley, Luc Weaver, and tight end Mark Bowman.

That turnover may explain skepticism, but it also creates upside. We have seen freshman like Ohio State Buckeyes' Jeremiah Smith or Alabama Crimson Tide receiver Ryan Williams come out and be impact players from Day 1. The Trojans have four shots at getting top-flight receiver production from four different styles of receiver.

Heisman Reality Check

The historical bar matters. Each of the seven Heisman winners prior to Travis Hunter played on teams that won at least 10 games. Cal hasn’t reached that mark since 2006. Sagapolutele would need both a personal leap and a program-level breakthrough to stay in the race.

Maiava’s path isn’t simple either. USC’s Big Ten schedule will be unforgiving, and the Trojans may lean more heavily on the run with King Miller, Waymond Jordan, and a returning offensive line. But those same matchups create Heisman moments, if Maiava capitalizes.

This isn’t a slight to Sagapolutele. It’s a reminder that ceiling still matters. And in that category, Jayden Maiava remains the more dangerous and more nationally relevant quarterback heading into 2026.