Final Score Prediction for Hattiesburg Regional Matchup Between Virginia and Jacksonville State

In one of the most interesting matchups of the opening day of regional play, Virginia is going to take on Jacksonville State in the Hattiesburg regional.

This regional is being seen as one of the most competitive in the NCAA Tournament field and it is truly up for grabs.

The Cavaliers come into this game well rested after falling in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals against Georgia Tech last Thursday, a 16-10 defeat to the team that would end up capturing the No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. There were some positives to take away from that game, though, in that the Hoos bats got going for the first time against a quality opponent in about a month, and in the game prior, a win against Duke, UVA ace Henry Zatkowski had another strong game.

Zatkowski is going to be on the mound for this game and he is going to be facing one of the most underated teams in America.

So in a battle between UVA and Jacksonville State, who comes out on top?

Matchup Preview and Prediction

Harrison Didawick Virginia Basebal — Jun 16, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Virginia Cavaliers center fielder Harrison Didawick (34) gets an out against the Florida State Seminoles during the first inning at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

There are no doubts about the strengths of both of these teams. Jacksonville State has one of the best bullpens and all-around pitching staffs in the country, while UVA has a talented lineup with multiple potential MLB Draft picks at their disposal.

Virginia has not always played up to their talent level behind the plate, but you are not going to find a top six in this regional that is better than Erick Becker, AJ Gracia, Joe Tiroly, Sam Harris, Harrison Didawick, and Jake Weatherspoon. Antonio Perrotta and Zach Jackson are names to watch as well.

The Cavaliers come into this game ranking 31st in runs per game, 20th in home runs, 14th in BB%, 232nd in K%, 161st in batting average, 75th in OBP, 44th in SLG, and 51st in wRC+. The standout stat from the offense is their ability to strike out a lot. This team swings and misses a lot, and if they do that against this pitching staff, it might be a long evening for the Hoos.

The Gamecocks come into this game ranked 7th in runs allowed per game, 15th in K%, 175th in BB%, 23rd in K-BB%, 13th in WHIP, 10th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP. They have a tendency to walk batters, but are an excellent strikeout staff. Virginia draws walks, but clearly strikes out a lot. Which side will win out?

Jacksonville State has a quality offense, but it is nothing like UVA had to just face in the ACC tournament against Georgia Tech. JSU ranks 77th in runs per game, 151st in home runs, 172nd in BB%, 51st in K%, 46th in batting average, 58th in OBP, 94th in SLG, and 66th in wRC+. It won't be a breezy matchup for Zatkowski and the Cavaliers bullpen.

The pitching for Virginia could be the determining factor in whether this team advances to the super regionals. UVA is 111th in runs allowed per game, 36th in K%, 155th in BB%, 51st in K-BB%, 83rd in WHIP, 78th in ERA, and 69th in FIP.

Chris Pollard alluded to it earlier this week, but one of the keys to UVA getting to the super regionals is going to be about how long the starters can go. Can Zatkowski give them a six to seven inning game and not make the bullpen go longer than needed? Lucas Hartman, Kevin Jaxel, Tyler Kapa, Christian Lucarelli and Noah Yoder are going to be the relievers most likely to be used tomorrow.

Can UVA's offense score enough against a strong Jacksonville State pitching staff? Can their pitching keep them in this game if needed? While very talented, UVA did not end the seaosn inspiring a lot of confidence and JSU is a very high caliber team. I think the Gamecocks eek out a win and send UVA to the brink of elimination on Saturday with a loss.

Final Score: Jacksonville State 7, UVA 5

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