KenPom Predicts No. 10 Virginia Basketball vs NC State Final Score

Will Virginia come out on top today vs NC State and move on to the ACC Tournament semifinals?

Mar 7, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom gesture from the bench against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It's time for the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals.

After earning a double bye and the No. 2 seed in the Tournament, Virginia is going to face NC State for the third time this season. While the Cavaliers are just slight favorites in this game, the first two times these two teams played this season resulted in large victories for the Hoos.

Virginia might be a top ten team in the polls, the advanced rankings are not as high on them. They are 20th in KenPom coming into this game, with the No. 33 offensive rating and the No. 16 defensive rating. NC State ranks 34th, with the No. 18 offense and the No. 86 defense.

Who is KemPom projecting to win the game?

Kempom is giving UVA a 65% chance to win the game and projectes the final score to be 79-75.

Who wins?

Newcomers Johann Grünloh and Ugonna Onyenso provide elite rim protection for UVA. UVA ranks first nationally in blocks (6.2 bpg), highlighted by Onyenso’s eight-block effort vs. Butler and Grünloh’s eight-block effort vs. NC State (2/24/26). Onyenso ranks sixth nationally with 2.6 blocks per game, while Grünloh is 12th at 2.4 bpg. Grünloh’s eight blocks vs. NC State (2/24/26) were most by a
Cavalier freshman since Jason Clark’s eight vs. VMI in 2002.

Onyenso blocked eight shots vs. Butler on Nov. 23, 2025. The eight-block performances are tied for seventh on UVA’s single-game blocks list. Onyenso has multiple blocks in 20 games, while Grünlohhas multiple blocks in 19 games. Onyenso has four or more blocks in nine contests, while Grünloh has four or more blocks in seven contests. Onyenso’s 80 blocks rank sixth on UVA’s single-season blocks list, while Grünloh’s 73 ranks eighth.

The 2025-26 roster is highlighted by 12 newcomers, including Dallin Hall (BYU), Malik Thomas (San Francisco), Devin Tillis (UC Irvine), Jacari White (North Dakota State), Ugonna Onyenso (Kansas State), Sam Lewis (Toledo) and Martin Carrere (VCU). UVA added European imports Thijs De Ridder (Bilbao Basket), Johann Grünloh (RASTA Vechta) and true freshmen Silas Barksdale, Chance Mallory and Owen Odom. Redshirt sophomores Elijah Gertrude, Carter Lang and Desmond Roberts are the lone returners from last year’s team.

De Ridder leads UVA in scoring (15.9 ppg) and rebounding (6.3 rpg), while Thomas (12.1 ppg), Lewis (10.4 ppg), and Mallory (9.6 ppg) are UVA’s other leading scorers. Onyenso leads the team in blocks (2.6 bpg), and Hall leads in assists (4.3 apg). UVA is averaging 80.9 points and holding foes to 68.3 ppg. UVA’s +12.6 scoring margin is its largest since the 2018-19 NCAA championship squad’s +15.3 margin. Seven different Cavaliers have led the team in scoring (Thijs De Ridder, Dallin Hall, Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory, Ugonna Onyenso, Malik Thomas, Jacari White). UVA averaged 77.3 ppg and holds foes to 69.6 ppg in ACC play