KenPom Predicts No. 13 Virginia Basketball vs Virginia Tech Final Score

The final weekend of the regular season has arrived in college basketball and the resumes for every team is almost complete.

Some teams have more on the line than others heading into this weekend and into the conference tournament, and there is no better example of this than the matchup between Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have locked up the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament and are likely going to be a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well. The Hokies, on the other hand, are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and need a win in today's rivalry game.

Virginia is 99-62 all-time vs. Virginia Tech, including a 43-14 mark in Charlottesville, in a series that dates to 1914-15. Virginia Tech defeated Virginia 85-85 in triple overtime in the ACC opener on Dec. 31 in Blacksburg. UVA and VT have split the two-game series between the teams in each of the last four seasons. The Cavaliers are 2-3 in the last five games against the Hokies and 4-6 in the last 10.

KenPom Prediction

Jacari White Virgini — Mar 3, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Jacari White (6) drives to the basket as Wake Forest Demon Deacons forward Tre'von Spillers (25) looks on in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Coming into this game, Virginia is ranked 19th in KenPom, with the No. 33 offense and No. 16 defensive rating in the country. Virginia Tech is ranked 57th overall in the country, with the 66th offensive rating and 64th in defenisve rating.

So who is KenPom predicting to win the game? Virginia has a strong chance to win according to KenPom, giving the Hoos an 85% chance to win the game and a final score prediction of 78-67.

Virginia is 271-64 (.809), including a 15-1 mark (7-1 in ACC play) in 2025-26, in 20 seasons at John Paul Jones Arena. UVA’s 11-game home win streak was ended by UNC on Jan. 24. The Cavaliers are 55-11 in their last 66 games at JPJ. UVA is 112-11 in non-league action at JPJ since 2009-10. UVA has won 10+ home games for 17 straight seasons.

Ben Hammond scored 30 points to lead Virginia Tech to a 95- 85 triple overtime home win over Virginia on Dec. 31. Malik Thomas scored a season-high 26 points and Thijs De Ridder tallied 22 points, 13 rebounds and five assists for UVA. Christian Gurdak (17 points, 19 rebounds) and Amani Hansberry (17 points, 15 rebounds) added double-doubles for Tech. The Hokies outscored the Cavaliers 40-30 in the three overtimes to secure the half point in the Commonwealth Clash. UVA attempted a school-record 45 3-pointers in the loss. Virginia Tech out-rebounded UVA 60-54 and went 28 of 41 from the free throw line.

De Ridder leads UVA in scoring (16.0 ppg) and rebounding (6.2 rpg), while Thomas (11.9 ppg), Lewis (10.2 ppg) and Mallory (10.0 ppg) are UVA’s other leading scorers. Onyenso leads the team in blocks (2.6 bpg) and Hall leads in assists (4.2 apg). UVA is averaging 81.0 points and holding foes to 68.1 ppg. UVA’s +12.9 scoring margin is its largest since the 2018-19 NCAA championship squad’s +15.3 margin. Seven different Cavaliers have led the team in scoring (Thijs De Ridder, Dallin Hall, Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory, Ugonna Onyenso, Malik Thomas, Jacari White). UVA averages 77.4 ppg and holds foes to 69.4 ppg in ACC play