KenPom Predicts No. 14 Virginia Basketball at Georgia Tech, Updates Projected Win Total

After a non-conference tilt with Ohio State, Virginia resumes conference play tonight against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come into this game having lost seven straight and they sit at the bottom of the standings, but the Cavaliers cannot afford to slip up on the road.

The Cavaliers are 10-2 away from home, including a 7-1 mark in true road contests. UVA has a six-game win streak and a seven-game road win streak. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 15 games (most since 21 in 2000-01) but 73 or less in its last five contests. The Cavaliers are averaging 81.4 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA ranks 19th in the NET rankings and 20th in the KenPom. com rankings.

Speaking of KenPom, they are projecting a big victory for the Cavaliers tonight. According to KenPom, UVA has a 91% chance to win tonight's game and the projected final score is 80-66. They are projected to finish with a 26-5 record and are projected favorites in four of their last five games, with the lone exception being the road test against No. 3 Duke.

Will UVA avoid the upset?

Ryan Odom Virginia Cavalier — Feb 7, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom speaks with an official during the first half against the Syracuse Orange at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images | Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in rebounds (41.6), offensive rebounds (14.1) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (.298), second in field goal percentage defense (.395), rebound margin (+9.2) and blocks (5.8 bpg), third in scoring defense (67.4 ppg) and scoring margin (+14.0) and fourth in 3-pointers (10.0), defensive rebounds (27.5 rpg) and assist/turnover ratio (1.54).

Thijs De Ridder ranks 13th in scoring (15.7 ppg), seventh in field goal percentage (51.5%) and 15th in rebounds (6.6 rpg). Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.1) and 12th in assists (4.0 apg). Ugonna Onyenso ranks second in blocks at 2.6 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.0 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (2.9), fourth in steals (1.8 spg), 14th in assists (3.5 apg), and 20th in free throw percentage (75.8%). Jacari White ranks 14th in 3-pointers made per game (2.1)

Georgia Tech has had 19 games this season decided by 15 points or less, including 11 by 10 points or less and five by five points or less On a seven-game skid, the Yellow Jackets look to get back to winning ways on Saturday. The losing streak marks the longest since a 9-game ACC skid in 2022-23. Georgia Tech is 9-1 this season when holding its opponent to under 40.0% shooting from the floor - it’s only loss coming at Virginia Tech. Alternatively, the Jackets are 2-14 when opponents shoot over 40.0% from the field, including an 0-6 mark when shooting over 50.0% . The Jackets have held 10 opponents to 40 percent or under from the floor, most recently Virginia Tech (33.8%)

For the fifth time in ACC play, and sixth overall, Tech shot over 45.0% from the field at Notre Dame and could not pull out the victory. In Stoudamire’s three seasons, Tech has done so 15 times (four in 2024-25; five in 2023-24) Tech has held four ACC opponents to under 30% from three-point range, most recently UNC (25.8%), and seven total under 40.0% . Overall this season, the Jackets have held 10 opponents to under 30% from 3-point distance and 18 to under 40% . In Georgia Tech wins, the Yellow Jackets are shooting on average 48.0 percent from the field, while its opponents average 35.5 percent

Will UVA avoid the upset?

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