Four Games That Will Define The Virginia Cavaliers 2026 Season

These four games will be paramount to the Cavaliers success in the fall

Jan 2, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) throws the ball against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during the Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Virginia has an intriguing schedule in 2026 with a few teams that should be much better next fall. With that, it is time to take a look at four games that could determine Virginia’s season and how well they will do. 

1. SMU 

Quietly, SMU has had a great past two seasons and has proved it can win under head coach Rhett Lashlee. They bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference with Kevin Jennings making his return to the Mustangs. Jennings led SMU to a 9-4 record and threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns on 66.1% completion rate. The Mustangs made some changes and will have a new roster coming in by way of the portal and recruiting class.

They should be right back in contention next season with the continuity they have at some key positions and their senior quarterback returning for one final season. The game against SMU could be for key positioning and one that determines if they will be able to stay atop the standings. 

2. Virginia Tech 

The rivalry will be more intense next season, especially with the Hokies being a more competent team. This game isn’t until the end of the year, but it could be a lot more on the line, especially if both teams have good seasons. Virginia Tech hired one of the better coaches in the country, James Franklin, to usher in a new era. They also added Brent Pry and running backs coach Norval McKenzie as key additions to the new regime. Coach Franklin brought in his former quarterback from Penn State, Ethan Grunkmeyer, to be the starting guy.

When you look at this roster from top to bottom, it is one of the better rosters in the ACC and at a minimum, the Hokies should be able to compete. They have had the Cavaliers' number over the past few years, but Virginia finally ended that streak with a win in 2025. If both teams have good years, when these rivals meet, it could be for a chance to make the ACC title game or even put themselves in position for a playoff spot. 

3. NC State 

The season opener doesn’t always determine the season, but it is a good indicator of how things can turn out. Virginia played NC State in the second game of the season and lost a close battle 35-31. While both are ACC opponents, it doesn’t count against their record in conference. However, Virginia is going to be looking to get their revenge and outlast the Wolfpack. NC State will return its starting quarterback, CJ Bailey and will have a new look running back room after the departure of Hollywood Smothers. Jayden “Duke” Scott will lead the Wolfpack in 2026. NC State should be competitive and in contention next season in the ACC. Virginia can set the tone for what the season will look like or go with a win in the season opener. 

4. California 

The Golden Bears quietly had a really good offseason and improved their roster tenfold with all the new additions. California has the No.2 transfer portal class in the ACC only behind Miami, and a top 15 transfer portal class for the 2026 portal. California added Dorian Thomas, Chase Hendricks, Adam Mohammed, and Ricky Fletcher as notable additions. The Golden Bears also return star quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, who will be regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the conference next season. Virginia dominated the Golden Bears last year in California. This will be a home game for the Hoos, but it certainly will have more muster and will be a game that has a lot to do with how their season goes.