TILOCK: Virginia’s AJ Gracia should be a top-10 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft

Leading up to the 2026 MLB Draft, Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia has been projected to go all over the first round — or outside of the top 25 picks. But given his talent, leadership and the status of other top talents, it would be a travesty for the Cavaliers' star to land outside of the top 10 selections.

The Gracia file

Gracia earned All-ACC honors in each of his three collegiate seasons. In 2026, he earned the Cavaliers’ triple crown of averages with a slashline of .354/.489/.632. Gracia was clobbering an extra base hit once every seven at-bats.

A patient and powerful hitter, Gracia has a long track record of statistical production. Perfect Game ranked him as the top outfielder (No. 5 player overall) in the talent-rich state of New Jersey in the 2023 high school class. Gracia then went on to etch his name in the record books in his two seasons at Duke.

In 2024, Gracia earned the Blue Devil freshman record for home runs and RBI. He also led the team in walks. He once again led the team in walks during the 2025 season, while ending the campaign on a 30-game on-base streak.

Gracia then followed Coach Chris Pollard to Virginia ahead of the 2026 season. He continued to star at the collegiate level, reaching base in 51 of his 56 games.

He started 55 of his 56 games in centerfield this season — playing through multiple undisclosed injuries that hampered his game speed, according to a source. Gracia only missed four games.

Who else?

Based on pure production and talent, Gracia fits the bill as a top draft selection. However, there are other players to consider.

In nearly every mock draft run by media outlets, the following players are almost always selected before Gracia: SS Roch Cholowsky (UCLA), SS Grady Emerson (Texas HS), C Vahn Lackey (Georgia Tech), SS Jacob Lombard (Florida HS), OF Eric Booth Jr. (Mississippi HS), RHP Jackson Flora (Santa Barbara) and OF Drew Burress (Georgia Tech).

Those players — and particularly their fit with the MLB clubs who own those picks — have been mentioned ad nauseum. The No. 8 selection is where things get interesting. Selection No. 8 through No. 15 is where the large group of talented college bats are projected to land — with LHP Gio Rojas (Florida HS) somewhere in the middle.

The cohort of elite college bats features Gracia, C Ryder Helfrick (Arkansas), SS Tyler Bell (Kentucky), SS Justin Lebron (Alabama), OF Derek Curiel (LSU), 2B Chris Hacopian (Texas A&M) and 3B Ace Reese (Mississippi State). Not all of them will be selected in the upper portion of the first round.

Brief notes:

Helfrick: SEC All-Defensive Team

Bell: First Team All-SEC

Curiel: Second Team All-SEC and SEC All-Defensive Team

Hacopian: First Team All-SEC

Reese: First Team All-SEC

Gracia’s case to lead the pack

For many months, Gracia was projected to go No. 9 overall to the Atlanta Braves. However, many mock drafts have since been adjusted to have Atlanta going with Rojas, or Flora if he falls.

Regardless of what the Braves do, Gracia has another strong fit. He has also frequently been mocked at No. 10 to the Colorado Rockies.

MLB’s Jonathan Mayo said that the Rockies “might opt for the pure hit tool and plate discipline Gracia provides.” The fit makes sense. Gracia could shift over to a corner outfield spot for Colorado and occasionally serve as the designated hitter, while producing competitive at-bats and hitting for power in the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

More importantly for the Rockies, they could probably save draft money for later rounds by going with Gracia. Because he missed time with injuries and was hampered in the field, Gracia might come with a discount relative to his talent. The same applies to Bell, but Gracia projects better as an MLB hitter due to his aforementioned plate discipline.

Of that collegiate crew, only Gracia, Reese and Curiel hit left-handed. Gracia is the safest option of that crew given Reese’s defensive struggles and Curiel’s lack of projected power.

There is also Gracia’s leadership to consider. Here is what Pollard had to say about him following Virginia’s win over No. 9 Southern Miss in the NCAA Tournament:

“I’ve known him since he was in the eighth grade,” Pollard said. “He's going to go down as the best player I've ever coached. And that's quite a statement. I've got a lot of guys in the big leagues right now, but I've never coached anybody like him. I've never coached somebody so consistent with their approach. The ability to be the same guy every day, something we really value in our program.”

Consider Pollard’s speech, Gracia’s production and his MLB-caliber performance at the plate as evidence. AJ Gracia should hear his name called early at the MLB Draft.

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