Virginia Basketball Still Alive for 1st Round Bye in ACC Tournament

Prior to Virginia's 83-75 victory at Wake Forest on Wednesday night, the Cavaliers were tied for 12th place in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings and still in danger of being one of those three unfortunate teams that will be left out of the ACC Tournament. Now, UVA is tied for 9th place with four other teams and thanks to a semi-complicated tiebreaking procedure, the Cavaliers would receive the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye in the ACC Tournament if it started today.

Here is what the bracket would look like for the 2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament if it started today:

What the bracket would look like for the 2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament if it started today (February 27). | Virginia Cavaliers On SI/the ACC

Of course, this will all change drastically over the last 10 days of the regular season, beginning with this Saturday's games. But for now, Virginia is in line for the No. 9 seed and would take on No. 8 seed Georgia Tech in the second round of the tournament for the right take on the current No. 1 seed Duke in the quarterfinals. That's a vast improvement over UVA's outlook going into the game at Wake Forest on Wednesday night, where a third-straight loss would have only elevated the concerns about the Cavaliers potentially missing the ACC Tournament. Now, it seems UVA is fairly safe on that front and could even have a shot at skipping the first round of games on Tuesday at the ACC Tournament.

Below you will see the current ACC standings with the tiebreakers used to determine ACC Tournament seeding.

Current ACC Standings with ACC Tournament seeds

Duke (16-1)
Louisville (15-2)
Clemson (15-2)
SMU (12-5)
Wake Forest (11-6)
North Carolina (11-6)
Stanford (10-7)
Georgia Tech (8-9)
Virginia (7-10)
Virginia Tech (7-10)
Florida State (7-10)
Pittsburgh (7-10)
Syracuse (6-11)
Notre Dame (6-11)
California (5-12)
NC State (4-13)
Boston College (4-13)
Miami (2-15)

Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Pittsburgh are all tied for ninth place in the standings with a 7-10 record in conference play. When three or more teams are tied, the tiebreaker is each team's winning percentage against the other teams in the group. Virginia has the best winning percentage against the group at 2-1, so the Cavaliers currently get the No. 9 seed. Pittsburgh has the worst winning percentage against the group at 1-2, so the Panthers are the No. 12 seed. Virginia Tech is 2-2 against the group and Florida State is 1-1, but the Hokies beat the Seminoles head-to-head so Virginia Tech gets the No. 10 seed, while Florida State gets the No. 11 seed.

Now, let's take a look at the closing schedules for each of these teams to get an idea of how likely it is that Virginia hangs onto the No. 9 seed and the coveted first round bye for the ACC Tournament:

Virginia's closing schedule:
- March 1st vs. Clemson
- March 4th vs. Florida State
- March 8th at Syracuse

Virginia Tech's closing schedule:
- March 1st vs. Syracuse
- March 4th vs. North Carolina
- March 8th at Clemson

Florida State's closing schedule:
- March 1st at Duke
- March 4th at Virginia
- March 8th vs. SMU

Pittsburgh's closing schedule
- March 1st at Louisville
- March 5th at NC State
- March 8th vs. Boston College

All of these teams have at least one game they are likely to lose in their closing schedule, combined with one or two challenging, but winnable games. It should also be noted that there is high potential for Virginia to significantly move in the standings (in either direction) beyond this group of four teams. UVA owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia Tech, the team currently in line for the No. 8 seed, but the Cavaliers could also drop substantially as there are two teams below them (Notre Dame and Cal) who own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Virginia.

Without going through the exercise of attempting to forecast the records of up to eight different teams through their final three games of the regular season, Virginia will likely need to go at worst 2-1 over its final three games in order to position itself for a first round bye in the ACC Tournament.

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