Virginia Basketball vs. Florida State Game Preview, Score Prediction

See our game blog for Virginia vs. Florida State with score updates and live analysis here: Virginia vs. Florida State Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Virginia will play its final home game of the regular season and face Leonard Hamilton for the last time when the Florida State Seminoles visit the Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena on Tuesday night.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Florida State, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Tuesday's matchup.

Virginia vs. Florida State Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (14-15, 7-11 ACC) vs. Florida State Seminoles (16-13, 7-11 ACC)

When: Tuesday, March 4th at 9pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena (14,623) in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ACC Network

Commentators: Anish Shroff (Play-by-Play), Randolph Childress (Analyst)

How to listen: SiriusXM 162 or 193, SXM App 955 | Virginia Sports Radio Network | Seminole Sports Network

All-time series: Virginia leads 29-28

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Florida State 80-76 on February 10th, 2024 in Tallahassee

Virginia vs. Florida State Game Notes

Virginia leads Florida State 29-28 in the all-time series that dates back to 1992.
The Cavaliers are 17-10 against the Seminoles in games played in Charlottesville and 7-5 at John Paul Jones Arena.
UVA has won each of the last three meetings with FSU, including a 62-57 win for Virginia the last time these two teams met in Charlottesville on December 3rd, 2022.
Virginia and Florida State are currently tied for 10th place in the ACC standings with a 7-11 record in conference play.
UVA is 9-7 in home games in the 2024-2025 season.

Scouting Report: Florida State

2023-2024: 17-16, 10-10 ACC (8th)
2024-2025: 16-13, 7-11 ACC (10th)

The peak of Leonard Hamilton's tenure at Florida State went hand in hand with Tony Bennett's peak at Virginia. The year that UVA went 31-3, earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and lost to UMBC in the first round, Florida State went on a run to the Elite Eight as a No. 9 seed. The following year, Florida State was one of just two teams to defeat Virginia in the entire season, beating UVA in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament and advancing to the Sweet 16 while the Cavaliers completed their redemption run to the national title. In the next season, it seemed like it was Florida State's year. The Seminoles went 26-5 in the regular season and 16-4 in ACC play, won the ACC regular season title for the first time ever, and were a favorite to not only win the ACC Tournament title, but to reach the Final Four for just the second time in program history.

Instead, the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19 and FSU's program has been on a gradual decline ever since. The Seminoles made the Sweet 16 again in 2021, but have failed to make the NCAA Tournament since then. Toss in a lawsuit brought by six former FSU players for a failure to pay more than a million dollars in NIL compensation and now, the 76-year-old Leonard Hamilton is coaching his final games on the sidelines for Florida State, as he announced in early February that he will be resigning at the end of this season. A two-time Big East Coach of the Year and three-time ACC Coach of the Year, we can now add him to the growing list of ACC coaching greats to depart over the last few years.

Florida State got off to a strong start this season, winning 12 of its first 15 games, but wins over Miami and Syracuse were the only notable games the Seminoles won, while losing to Florida, LSU, and NC State. After starting ACC play 4-3, Florida State lost its next four games and has gone 3-8 since that solid start to league play. The Seminoles come to Charlottesville having lost their last three games at Louisville, at home against North Carolina, and at Duke last weekend.

Despite the tumultuous season for the program, some things never change in Tallahassee. The one thing that almost never changes is Leonard Hamilton having a deep rotation full of tall, long, and athletic wings. Florida State has 10 players who have each played in at least 25 of the 29 games and who average at least 10 minutes played per game. Of those ten players, seven are listed at 6'7" or taller and nine of them are at least 6'5". KenPom lists Florida State as the second-tallest team in the country.

Jamir Watkins is the team's leading scorer. A 6'7" redshirt senior guard, Watkins is tied for fourth in the ACC in scoring at 18.5 points per game and also averages 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals per game and shoots 32.9% from three. Watkins has been on a heater recently, scoring at least 20 points in each of the last three games, and he had 21 points against Virginia the last time these two teams met.

6'11" junior forward Malique Ewin, a transfer from Ole Miss, is the only other double-digit scorer on the team, though that's more a product of FSU's deep rotation. Ewin averages 14.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per game and is currently the ACC's leader in field goal percentage, converting on 59.4% of his shots from the floor for the season and 63.1% in ACC games. He has made 22 of his last 24 field goal attempts, including a perfect 10/10 in a win over Miami.

Joining Ewin in the starting front court is 6'10" sophomore forward Taylor Bol Bowen, who is averaging 8.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and a team-leading 1.5 blocks per game. Bol Bowen has scored in double figures only eight times this season, but the Seminoles are 7-1 in those eight games. He is also the team's best three-point shooter at 40.6% from beyond the arc on 2.5 three-point attempts per game.

Florida State's third-leading scorer is a true freshman and the shortest player in the rotation, 6'1" guard Daquan Davis, who is averaging 8.8 points per game and is also the team's top facilitator, averaging 2.6 assists per game. Davis is one of five Seminoles averaging more than one steal per game. Rounding out the starting five is 6'5" junior guard Chandler Jackson. A full-time starter for the first time, Jackson is averaging 6.9 points, 2.1 assists, and a team-leading 1.3 steals per game.

Then there's the bench mob, led by 6'9" sophomore guard Jerry Deng, who averages 7.0 points per game and shoots 37.9% from beyond the arc. Also coming off the bench are 6'7" senior guard Justin Thomas (4.7 ppg), 6'7" senior guard Bostyn Holt (3.1 ppg), 6'6" freshman forward AJ Swinton (2.9 ppg), and 7'0" freshman forward Alier Maluk (2.6 ppg). All of those players average double-digit minutes each game and have played in at least 25 games this season.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. Florida State

Florida State's aggressive defense
Even Virginia's best offensive teams had their struggles against Florida State's switch-heavy, aggressive on-ball defense. Thanks to their length, athleticism, and depth, the Seminoles have always been able to switch on almost every screen and continuously apply a heavy amount of pressure on opposing team's ball-handlers. That's the case again this season, as FSU ranks first in the ACC with 13.5 turnovers forced per game. The Seminoles are also first in the league in blocks and second in steals. Andrew Rohde and the Cavalier guards will have to be on their A-game in terms of ball security and the UVA front court will have to be physical and tough when trying to finish at the rim against Florida State's many shot blockers.

Leonard Hamilton's last hurrah
Few coaches have had as much success against Virginia in the last two decades as Leonard Hamilton has with Florida State. Hamilton is 19-16 against UVA since he arrived in Tallahassee and is 5-7 against the Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena, a pretty impressive record as compared to most of the other ACC coaches with the exception of Coach K. Hamilton is fourth all-time in ACC regular season wins and needs just one more win to reach 200 ACC wins in the regular season. Just as Tony Bennett's retirement has been a major storyline for this Virginia basketball season, so too has Leonard Hamilton's final season at the helm of the Florida State basketball program. Tuesday will likely be his final game coaching against the Cavaliers.

End of an era at JPJ
Speaking of sentimentality... Saturday's game against Clemson was Senior Day, but Tuesday's game is Virginia's final home game of the season, barring the Cavaliers hosting an NIT game. We didn't know it at the time, but Tony Bennett's last game on the sidelines at John Paul Jones Arena was nearly a full calendar year ago, a 72-57 victory for UVA over Georgia Tech in the regular season finale. We can't completely rule out the dwindling possibility that Ron Sanchez could be retained as the full-time head coach, but if he isn't brought back and Virginia chooses to completely turn the page, then this could be the last time we see the remnants of Bennett Ball at John Paul Jones Arena... and what a run it was.

Virginia vs. Florida State Prediction

This is a good matchup on paper. Florida State has the length and depth to bother Virginia, but the Cavaliers have the shooting and ball movement to beat the Seminoles if they extend too much. Both teams are tied for 10th place in the ACC standings; if they want any chance of moving up and earning a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, this is a must-win for both teams. I see Virginia winning a close one.

Score prediction: Florida State 60, Virginia 64

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