Virginia Basketball vs. Pittsburgh Game Preview, Score Prediction

See our game blog for Virginia vs. Pitt with score updates, play-by-play, and live analysis here: Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Just 48 hours after suffering a brutal one-point loss at home to Virginia Tech, the Virginia Cavaliers will have to quickly put that defeat behind them as they hit the road to take on a solid Pitt team on Monday night in a tough turnaround.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Pittsburgh, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Monday night's matchup.

Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (10-12, 3-8 ACC) at Pittsburgh Panthers (14-7, 5-5 ACC)

When: Monday, February 3rd at 7pm ET

Where: Petersen Events Center (12,508) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

How to watch: ESPN

Commentators: Dave O'Brien, Cory Alexander, Myron Medcalf

How to listen: SiriusXM 380, SXM App 970 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: Virginia leads 19-6

Last meeting: Pittsburgh defeated Virginia 74-63 on February 13th, 2024 in Charlottesville.

Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Game Notes

Virginia leads Pitt 19-6 in the all-time series that dates back to December of 1957.
The Cavaliers are 8-4 against the Panthers in games played in Pittsburgh and 5-2 at the Petersen Events Center.
Virginia has won 15 of the last 18 games and eight of the last 10 against Pitt and is 12-3 against the Panthers since they joined the ACC in 2013, but Pitt has won the last two games in the series, including a 74-63 win in Charlottesville last season and a 68-65 victory for Pitt when these two teams last met at Petersen Events Center in January of 2023.
UVA is 2-7 in games played away from Charlottesville this season and 1-5 in true road contests, picking up its lone true road win at Miami last Wednesday.
Pittsburgh is currently eighth in the ACC standings with a 5-5 conference record, while Virginia is 15th in the league standings with a 3-8 record in ACC play.

Scouting Report: Pittsburgh

2023-2024: 22-11, 12-8 ACC (4th)
2024-2025: 14-7, 5-5 ACC (8th)

Two seasons ago, Pitt defeated Virginia for just the second time since joining the ACC and had a chance at winning the ACC regular season title, but the Panthers faltered late, dropping down to the No. 5 seed in the ACC Tournament and barely sneaking into the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Jeff Capel, while Virginia won a share of the ACC regular season title and earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Last season, the Panthers beat the Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena for the very first time and should have returned to the Big Dance for the second year in a row, finishing just below Virginia at fourth in the final ACC standings. Instead, Pitt was left on the cutting room floor by the selection committee, one of the first four teams out of the final field of 68, while UVA just barely made it in only to be run off the floor in the play-in game in what ended up being Tony Bennett's final game at Virginia.

This season, Pitt seemed to be well on its way back to the NCAA Tournament after a strong 12-2 start which included wins over West Virginia, LSU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Cal, and Stanford and the only two losses coming against Wisconsin and Mississippi State. But since then, Capel's Panthers have collapsed and come into this game having lost five of their last seven games, most recently falling at Wake Forest 76-74 on Saturday. Pitt is now firmly on the bubble and needs to regain control of its season quickly in order to put together an NCAA Tournament-worthy resume.

Pitt brought in a couple of impact transfers this season, but the two headliners are returners from last year's squad. 6'3" guard Jaland Lowe has taken the sophomore leap, increasing his scoring from 9.6 to 17.4 points per game in his second season of college basketball and currently ranks eighth in the ACC in scoring. He has scored in double figures in 18 of 21 games this season and also distributes 5.6 assists per game, but turns it over 3.0 times per game as well. Lowe shoots a lot of threes, but not nearly as well as he did last season (28.0%, down from 35.2%).

Joining Lowe in the back court is 6'3" senior guard Ishmael Leggett, who is in his second year at Pitt after transferring from Rhode Island. Leggett is averaging a career-high 16.5 points per game to go along with 5.7 rebounds per game. He is shooting 34.1% from three on 4.1 attempts per game. Both Lowe and Leggett are averaging 1.8 steals per game, top five in the ACC in that category.

6'5" graduate guard Damian Dunn started his career at Temple, where he played four seasons before transferring to Houston last year, before finally coming to Pitt for his final season. Dunn underwent surgery on November 25th to repair a dislocated thumb suffered against Wisconsin. He returned to the floor in early January and is now back in the starting lineup. Dunn scored a season-high 24 points last time out against Wake Forest and also dished out four assists. He is Pitt's best three-point shooter at 42.6% from beyond the arc.

In the front court, 6'10" junior forward and Florida State transfer Cameron Corhen has started every game for the Panthers and is averaging 10.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game while shooting 62.9% from the floor. 6'7" senior forward Zack Austin is in his second year at Pitt after transferring from High Point. Austin came off the bench for the first nine games of the season, but has been in the starting lineup since then, averaging 9.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. He leads the ACC in blocks at 1.8 rejections per game and also attempts the most threes of any Panther and converts them at a 39.6% rate. Despite that, Austin is not a reliable scorer, failing to reach double figures in 12 out of 21 games this season.

Leading the bench mob is 7'0" junior Guillermo Diaz Graham, the better of the twin seven footers on the Pitt roster; his brother Jorge Diaz Graham plays less than seven minutes per game. Guillermo Diaz Graham started 18 of 21 games this season, but has recently begun coming off the bench following the return of Damian Dunn to the lineup. He is averaging 6.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game and is willing to take the open three if it's there, but UVA might be content to let him take it, as he shoots 29.2% from three on the season. Also coming off the bench are a pair of promising freshmen guards in Brandin Cummings and Amsal Delalic, who are both shooting better than 40% from three-point range.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. Pitt

Turnover Battle
Pitt doesn't turn the ball over very much, ranking second in the ACC at 9.8 turnovers per game. With the help of Lowe and Leggett coming up with steals, the Panthers also force 12.4 turnovers by their opponents each game, resulting in the ACC's third best turnover margin (+2.62). Virginia is seventh in the ACC in turnovers at 10.5 per game, which isn't terrible, but not at all what the Cavaliers are used to, as taking care of the basketball was one of the consistent tenets of Bennett ball and a necessity given UVA's slow pace of play. It's been a bigger problem for the Hoos on the road this season, as they turn the ball over 13 times per game on the road, as compared to 8.7 turnovers per game at home. If the Cavaliers want any chance of coming away from Pitt with a win, they must take care of the basketball.

Three-Point Shooting
Pitt is a mediocre three-point shooting team by percentage (35.7%, 8th in the ACC), but the Panthers make the fourth-most threes of any team in the league, averaging 8.5 made triples per game. Virginia's three-point defense has been downright lousy this season, as evidenced by Saturday's loss to Virginia Tech in which the Hokies made 11/21 threes, making more triples than Virginia on fewer attempts. That was most commonly the result of the countless practice-quality open looks the Hoos were giving them. UVA obviously needs to shoot the ball well from three, but more importantly, Virginia must improve its perimeter defense and limit Pitt's wide-open threes.

Injuries, Virginia's Front Court Situation
Elijah Saunders is unlikely to be available for this game. He missed each of the last two games with a lower body injury and has been seen with a cast on his right foot for the last week. Virginia doesn't have a good option at power forward without him (TJ Power is borderline unplayable), so the Hoos have been going with multiple centers (two of Jacob Cofie, Blake Buchanan, and Anthony Robinson) or playing small with someone like Taine Murray defending the four. Neither situation is ideal but it's what Sanchez and company have to work with right now. Look for the Pitt front court to try to take advantage the same way Virginia Tech did.

Virginia vs. Pitt Prediction

Pitt has lost five of its last seven, but Virginia has been worse, losing seven of its last nine games dating back to the start of the new year. The Cavaliers' win at Miami last Wednesday does not do much to suggest that their road woes are gone; there is simply too much evidence from this entire season that they simply do not play well away from home. I see the Panthers beating the Hoos to win their third-straight in the series.

Score prediction: Virginia 61, Pittsburgh 70

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