FPI Releases 2026 Preseason Projections: Where Do The Hokies Lie?

ESPN's latest Football Power Index is out, and the early outlook for Virginia Tech is intriguing.

Sep 7, 2024; Blacksburg, Va.; Marshall quarterback Stone Earle (11) runs the ball against Virginia Tech defensive lineman Kemari Copeland (13). | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Virginia Tech football is hopeful that its 2026 season — its first under new head coach James Franklin — will be a far more fruitful endeavor than its 2025 campaign. The truth is that it likely will be regardless; the Hokies' 2025 season, which ended with a 3-9 record, was its worst mark by winning percentage since the 1992 season, and its 0-3 start to the season was its worst such occurrence since 1987.

#Hokies clock in at No. 33 on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) — one spot behind UVa. pic.twitter.com/h8fVGI9Urj

— Thomas Hughes (@thomashughes_05) July 10, 2026

ESPN's Football Power Index released its 2026 preseason rankings; the Hokies clocked in with an FPI ranking of 7.4, good for No. 33 in the nation. The Hokies were seventh of ACC squads, sitting behind Miami (21.8; No. 7), Clemson (13.4, No. 19), SMU (11.1, No. 24), Louisville (9.5, No. 27), Florida State (9.3, No. 28) and Virginia (7.9, No. 32).

The Hokies were given a projected win-loss record of 7.0-5.1 with no chance of winning out. The FPI projects a 76.4% chance of Virginia Tech claiming six or more wins, 3.2% odds of Virginia Tech winning the conference, 7.3% odds of the Hokies making the 12-team College Football Playoff (7.3%), a 0.3 chance of making the national championship and a 0.1% chance of winning the national championship.

FPI slots Virginia Tech's strength of schedule in the middle of the ACC, ranking it eighth with a No. 43 ranking in the country.

Virginia Tech's 2026 season carries the tinge of further expectations than many of the season before it. The Hokies have retooled at quarterback, bringing in Penn State transfer signal-caller Ethan Grunkemeyer. Last season as a redshirt freshman, Grunkemeyer threw for 1,339 passing yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Moreover, his quarterback rating of 75.0 would have ranked No. 25 if extrapolated out for a full season.

At running back, Virginia Tech is leaning more on existing production, returning leading rusher Marcellous Hawkins after he totaled 749 rushing yards a season ago. Jeffrey Overton Jr. is also back after a breakout end to his freshman season, totaling 146 rushing yards over the final four games of the regular season and starting the regular-season finale against then-No. 17 Virginia.

Ayden Greene is back at wide receiver after totaling 516 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while Virginia tech welcomes Que'Sean Brown from Duke after he totaled 846 receiving yards and five scores for the Blue Devils last season.

On defense, Virginia Tech is headlined by redshirt senior Kemari Copeland, who logged 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last season, including a 3-sack output against California Oct. 24.

Virginia Tech's 2026 season starts against VMI on Saturday, Sept. 5, at 7:30 p.m. ET. It will be the first meeting between the two schools since 1984.