Three Reasons Virginia Tech Can Beat Georgia Tech — And Three Reasons It Can Lose
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Seven points are all that separate Virginia Tech from 6–0.
The Hokies are 4–2 instead, 1–2 in the ACC, and Saturday’s sold-out Homecoming game against Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network) will say which of those records is closer to the truth.
The Yellow Jackets are 2–3 and 1–1 in the league, but they arrive off a 28–25 win over a Duke team that had been unbeaten.
Here are three reasons Virginia Tech can win, and three reasons it won’t.
Why Virginia Tech can win
Ethan Grunkemeyer should have time
Grunkemeyer has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,734 yards and 12 touchdowns against two interceptions. Both picks came in one night against Pitt, when he also threw for 434 yards.
Georgia Tech didn’t sack Duke’s Walker Eget once on Saturday, and the Blue Devils converted 10 of 17 third downs. Against FBS opponents, the Yellow Jackets are allowing 29.5 points a game. Cal got to Grunkemeyer three times last week. Georgia Tech gave no sign Saturday that it can. The Yellow Jackets have just six sacks this season, three of which were against FCS Mercer.
Georgia Tech can be run on
Through five games, Georgia Tech ranks 117th in the FBS in rushing yards per game (183.0). It did a decent job against Duke's young star running back Nate Sheppard, holding him to just 3.7 yards per carry. He did score twice on the ground, however.
Virginia Tech ran for about 178 yards a game in its four wins. It has 178 total in its two losses. Sophomore Jeffrey Overton Jr. averages 5.9 yards a carry and got two carries after halftime in Berkeley. That’s a play-calling problem, and this is the defense to fix it against.
Alberto Mendoza can be hit
Georgia Tech's first-year starter has been sacked nine times through five games this season. Despite sacking Jackson Brousseau just once on Saturday, the Hokies still lead the ACC with 19 sacks, and their run defense ranks 14th nationally through six games at 86.5 yards allowed.
Take away Justice Haynes and Trelain Maddox on early downs and the game lands on Mendoza, on the road, in a full Lane Stadium. Georgia Tech has played one road game. It led Stanford 20–10 and lost 34–27.
Why Virginia Tech might lose
The kicking game is a coin flip
John Love missed from 36 yards on the final play against Pitt, then from 55 and 39 at Cal. It’s the first time in his career he has missed three in a row. Coach James Franklin’s answer afterward: “We’re going to have to create some more competition.”
Georgia Tech has played three one-score games in five. Its kicker, Aidan Birr, is 6-for-8. If Saturday comes down to three points, the Hokies can’t be sure what they’ll get.
The secondary keeps drives alive
Cal's Brousseau, a backup making his first start for the Bears, threw for 321 yards on 29-of-43 passing. Cal went 5-for-5 on third down in the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech was flagged for pass interference four times, and it hasn’t forced a turnover in four games.
Mendoza just went 23-of-30 against Duke without a sack or a turnover, and Jordan Allen caught 10 passes for 99 yards. Mendoza doesn’t need to be great. He needs the windows Brousseau had.
Georgia Tech just learned to finish
The Yellow Jackets lost by one to Colorado and by seven to Stanford. Then, down 25–21 with 2:40 left Saturday, they drove 61 yards and Maddox scored from the 1 with 54 seconds to go. Coach Brent Key called it “the first time this year we’ve played as a football team.”
Virginia Tech led Pitt 14–0 and led Cal with 1:15 left. It lost both, and it was flagged 15 times for 170 yards along the way, 30 of them on Cal’s winning drive. Lane Stadium hasn’t been much of an edge in this series, either. Georgia Tech has won four of its last five trips to Blacksburg.
What it comes down to
The matchup favors Virginia Tech at quarterback, on the ground and up front. Nothing about the last two weeks was a talent problem. That’s the encouraging part and the worrying part, because flags and missed kicks are habits until a team proves they aren’t.
Clemson is next on Oct. 24, then Virginia Tech has its bye week before heading to SMU. The Hokies are good enough to beat Georgia Tech by two scores. They’ve also just shown they can lose a game like this by two points.
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James Duncan serves as a staff writer for Virginia Tech On SI, covering football, men’s and women’s basketball and recruiting. He is a 2026 Virginia Tech graduate, having majored in Sports Media and Analytics with a minor in Professional and Technical Writing. Duncan previously covered the Washington Commanders as a reporter for The Lead, where he reported on the team throughout an offseason.