Analytics Estimate WVU’s Mind-Blowing Magic Number for the NCAA Tournament

Do the Mountaineers really need to dominate down the final stretch?

Jan 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge watches play against the Houston Cougars in the first half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Two-thirds of West Virginia's Big 12 schedule is now behind them, and the road to an NCAA Tournament berth is not going to be easy, although they've already played the most difficult part of their schedule.

With six games remaining, the Mountaineers are 16-9 overall and 7-5 in Big 12 play. So, how many more wins do they need to be in a comfortable position?

A quick warning, you may want to sit down for this.

According to TeamRankings.com, 24 wins would give WVU a 55% chance of making the field. 25 would make them a lock. Of course, that would mean that the Mountaineers would need to win out to finish the regular season and then win two games in the Big 12 Conference tournament or win five of the final six and win three in the tournament. Anything short of 24? Well, it doesn't look good, per this model.

Full Projections per win total on TeamRankings.com

TeamRankings.com

Why I firmly disagree

Teams like UCF, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all considered bubble teams at the moment, and you could make the argument that WVU has a better resume than all three of them. The Horned Frogs have a Q3 and Q4 loss, WVU beat UCF head-to-head, and Oklahoma State has one Quad 1 win to West Virginia's four. If those teams are all in the discussion, then West Virginia should be as well.

If WVU were to go 3-3 to round things out, they'd be 10-8 in the league. A 4-2 mark would obviously push them to 11-7. I'm sorry, but there is just no logical way a team that finishes over. 500 in the best conference in college basketball gets left out (assuming one of those three losses doesn't come to Utah or Kansas State), especially when they have a win over Kansas, which is No. 14 in the NCAA's NET Rankings. Personally, I think 21 gets the job done.

All of these predictive tools have their flaws, and I've yet to see one that is perfect. I may disagree with the "magic number," but I'm not completely disregarding it either. WVU just snuck into the final spot of Joe Lunardi's "next four out" in his latest bracketology projection, so clearly there is a lot of work to be done.

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