Analytics Lean Heavily Toward West Virginia in Big 12 Home Opener vs. Cincinnati

West Virginia is eyeing its first conference win of the 2025-26 season.

Jan 2, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge watches his team play the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Tuesday night, West Virginia will return to action for the Big 12 home opener against Sencire Harris, Kerr Kriisa, and the Cincinnati Bearcats. Can they get back in the win column?

What the ESPN BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, West Virginia is a strong favorite to pick up its first Big 12 win of the season, given a 71.6% chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has just a 28.4% chance of avoiding a 0-2 start in league play. The computers have a much different opinion than that of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, who currently have the Mountaineers favored by 2.5 points (odds via FanDuel). Cincinnati lost its only road game to Xavier, while WVU is a perfect 9-0 at home.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountaineers haven't won or dropped consecutive games since they won two straight over Mercyhurst and Coppin State at the end of November and beginning of December. In the five games since, they've gone 0-3 against high majors, losing to Wake Forest, Ohio State, and Iowa State, while going 2-0 against low majors, beating Little Rock and Mississippi Valley State.

Last Friday, defensive rebounding cost the Mountaineers big time in the loss to Iowa State. Against Ohio State, it was points in the paint. And in the loss to Wake, it was turning the ball over 18 times. It seems like something new pops up every night, and for a team that doesn't have the talent to overcome major adversity, they have to avoid the putrid performance in one aspect of the game.

Cincinnati's recent games

Much like West Virginia, the Bearcats have lost to pretty much anyone that has a pulse on their schedule. The difference? They have one terrible loss to Eastern Michigan, who beat them on their own court, 64-56.

Here recently, Cincy has lost two of its last three, falling to Clemson by three and No. 8 Houston by seven. Surprisingly, Cincinnati actually took a 33-29 lead into the break over the Cougars, but their defense fell apart in the final 20 minutes, allowing 39 points in the second half. A big part of that result can be blamed on the carelessness on the offensive end, turning the ball over 15 times, leading to 18 points the other way.

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