Confidence Meter: What Are the Odds West Virginia Makes the NCAA Tournament?

WVU can still go dancing...right?

Feb 5, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge works the sideline against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Entering Saturday's game at UCF, West Virginia has a 15-9 (6-5) record on the season. Postseason play is not completely out of the question for the Mountaineers, but they have a ton of work to do.

The question is, can they figure out enough answers on the offense to give themselves a shot?

The confidence meter: 2/10

WVU's defense is going to give them a chance just about every night. They are fifth nationally in points allowed per game and are in the top 50 in opponent field goal percentage. Lapses do happen, but for the most part, they play more than well enough on that end of the floor to win.

Offensively, well, that's another story, as you all know. Honor Huff has been bottled up for the majority of Big 12 play, and the fact that they haven't been able to free him up to this point is pretty concerning. As I've mentioned several times before, it's going to take somebody else stepping up and consistently knocking down shots to pull some of that attention away from Huff.

There are seven games left in the regular season, and in my opinion, they'll need to get to 20 or 21 to be considered. Depending on who those wins come against, it could change that magic number by a game or so in either direction. The problem is, the results are more likely to be impacted in a negative way, so they will have to win more than 20-21 to get in. For example, a loss to TCU or Kansas State is more likely than a win over BYU or a sweep of UCF.

If they take care of business at home (excluding BYU), that would put them at 17-10 with road games against UCF, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. Can they win three of those? Maybe. All four? That's a stretch. Beating BYU would go a long way because it would mean you don't have to steal as many on the road.

We'll check back in on this after the BYU game at the end of the month. For now, WVU has got to grind out some wins on the road and beat Utah at home.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

Three Keys That Could Make Year Two Go Very Right — or Very Wrong — for Rich Rodriguez

Several Changes to WVU Defensive Depth Chart Projection Following New Additions

Can WVU Defend Its Big 12 Title? Record Predictions for the 2026 Season Are In

West Virginia Lands Iowa Western Safety Tim Roberson

Projecting West Virginia's Starting Lineup & Stats for the 2026 Season