What the BPI Projects for WVU’s Remaining Games and How It Impacts Tournament Hopes

West Virginia is going to need a stronger finish than that to be a part of March Madness.

Jan 27, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward DJ Thomas (5) shoots during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Imagesa | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Halfway through Big 12 Conference play, West Virginia sits just a game above .500 and 14-8 overall. They're not totally out of contention for the NCAA Tournament, thanks to several Quad 1 and 2 opportunities still out there, but they have a ton of work to do to make that resume a little prettier.

Before each game, we always do an article on what the ESPN BPI matchup predictor says just to get an idea of how the analytics expect things to play out. Today, we'll look at what the predictor says for each of WVU's nine remaining games and what those projections would mean for the Mountaineers' chances to go dancing.

BPI matchup predictor projections (% chance is WVU's chance to win the game, per ESPN analytics)

at Cincinnati - 42.1% | 14-9 (5-5)

vs. Texas Tech - 42.9% | 14-10 (5-6)

at UCF - 40.6% | 14-11 (5-7)

vs. Utah - 84.3% | 15-11 (6-7)

at TCU - 43.6% | 15-12 (6-8)

at Oklahoma State - 51.7% | 16-12 (7-8)

vs. BYU - 35.7% | 16-13 (7-9)

at Kansas State - 53.9% | 17-13 (8-9)

vs. UCF - 66.5% | 18-13 (9-9)

What these projections would mean for the resume

With those results above, it will give the Mountaineers the following resume, assuming the games already played don't shift to another quad, which is certainly possible.

Quad 1: 2-9
Quad 2: 4-4
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 8-0

A reminder that a game that was played two months ago can be reclassified to another Quad, as it follows where that opponent sits in the NET Rankings.

At the end of the day, if West Virginia does finish with an 18-13 (9-9) record, I'm not really sure it matters what the final tallies are in each quadrant — they won't make the tournament. In most years, going .500 or better in this conference would get you in or, at the very least, on the bubble. This year, the league is extremely top-heavy. You have a few teams like WVU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State who are trying to hang around in the conversation, but all three could miss out. Beyond that, it's a dumpster fire for the most part.

Last week, I broke down what I thought it would take for the Mountaineers to go dancing, including what the magic number (total wins) will likely have to be.

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