ESPN BPI Predicts Bubble Game Between West Virginia and Baylor

West Virginia and Baylor each enter Saturday's game with a 15-9 record on the season.

West Virginia University guard Javon Small / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

This afternoon, the West Virginia Mountaineers and Baylor Bears will face off in a very critical game that could play a big factor in determining the NCAA Tournament fate of both teams.

Can WVU collect its first win in Waco since 2018?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 19.5% chance to win in Waco while Baylor has an 80.5% to hand the Mountaineers their second straight loss.

Seeing the percentages tilted this heavily in the Bears' favor isn't all that shocking. Winning on the road in college basketball is incredibly difficult, especially in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers are 3-7 all-time in Waco and have lost six straight in the series. Obviously, this is a completely different team, and coaching staff for that matter, but it just shows you how much of a thorn Baylor has been in WVU's side over the years.

West Virginia's recent games

Feb 11, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Sencire Harris (10) shoots in the lane against Brigham Young Cougars forward Mihailo Boskovic (5) and Brigham Young Cougars forward Kanon Catchings (6) during the first half at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Conference play has been a bit of a rollercoaster for the Mountaineers, and the last five games prove it by alternating wins and losses. After seemingly getting back on track against Houston, West Virginia let one slip away against BYU at home - a game in which they led for over 30 minutes. Defensively, they faltered in the second half, giving up way too many open looks, and once again, the offense went M.I.A. in the final minutes.

Baylor's recent games

Feb 10, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Jeremy Roach (3) reacts after loosing the ball to the Houston Cougars in the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Bears find themselves in an almost identical situation to West Virginia. I mean, these two teams are so similar in terms of their results and recent play that the first thing that pops into my head is the Spider-Man meme point at one another. Baylor enters with an identical 15-9 record and has alternated wins and losses over its last five as well. During this five-game stretch, they've defeated Kansas and UCF while falling short in overtime to BYU, lost by 14 to Texas Tech, and then 11 by Houston.

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