ESPN FPI Updates West Virginia's Win Probability vs. Reeling Colorado

WVU is looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Oct 18, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez watches a play during the first half against the Central Florida Knights at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Russell Lansford-Imagn Images | Russell Lansford-Imagn Images

Expecting a West Virginia win has not been the norm for fans this year, but after last week's performance against Houston and a reeling Colorado team coming to town, it's okay to have that expectation for this upcoming weekend.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Colorado

Nov 1, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. (15) celebrates his touchdown with teammates against the Houston Cougars in the second half at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index, West Virginia has a 54.9% chance to win their second straight game, while Colorado has a 45.1% chance to put an end to their miserable two-game slide.

Although these two teams enter this week's contest with identical 3-6 (1-5) records, the two are heading in completely opposite directions, based on the past two weeks.

The Buffs have been outscored 105-24 in their last two games, losing to Utah and Arizona. The run defense has been a nightmare for them as they've been gashed for a combined 626 yards in those losses. Offensively, Colorado has been spinning its wheels in the mud, trying to find an answer at quarterback. This week, they are planning to make the change to true freshman Julian Lewis.

West Virginia, on the other hand, nearly took down TCU and then followed that up with a 45-35 upset win on the road over then 22nd-ranked Houston, having found something at quarterback in Scotty Fox Jr.

Change in analytics since initially released

Oct 25, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders looks on during a time out in the game against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Surprisingly, not much of a difference here. Back in August, West Virginia was given a 53% chance to win this game, so a slight increase by just 1.9%. Given how poorly Colorado has looked the last two weeks, suffering the largest defeat in the Big 12 this year, I would have expected WVU to have a win probability north of 65%.

The Mountaineers have played much better at home, with the exception of the Utah game, which got out of hand pretty quickly. Not to mention, an early 12 p.m. kick is not ideal for a West Coast team. You see it all the time in the NFL, where a superior team loses to a middle-of-the-road or worse team on the East Coast because of the travel and early start.

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