West Virginia’s Win Probability Drops Ahead of Saturday’s Matchup at Ohio

After kicking off Rich Rod 2.0 with a dominating 45-3 victory over Robert Morris, the West Virginia Mountaineers will take on the defending MAC champs, Ohio, this Saturday on the road.

Let's take a look at what the computers think about this matchup.

What the ESPN FPI says

Aug 30, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers linebacker Reid Carrico (35) recovers a fumble during the third quarter against the Robert Morris Colonials at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index), West Virginia has a 53.6% chance of securing a win in Athens and moving to 2-0 on the season.

It's still difficult to gauge how good the Mountaineers will be this season, given that the game against Robert Morris didn't really reveal much in the opener. It may not be a Power Four opponent, but Ohio is one of the more respected Group of Six teams in the country, especially since the start of 2022. In that time, the Bobcats have compiled a record of 31-11.

For WVU, which has over 80 new players on the roster, this will be a good measuring stick game to see what they actually have and get a better understanding of where their strengths and weaknesses may lie.

Change in analytics since initially released

Ohio Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro (13) looks for an open teammate, Thursday, August 28, 2025. | Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Since the preseason, this thing has swung more in Ohio's favor, with WVU's chances of winning dropping from 63.9% to the aforementioned 53.6%.

The reason for this?

If I had to guess, it has more to do with what Ohio did against Rutgers and taking them down to the wire more than it has to do with West Virginia. The only thing we really "learned" about WVU in the opener was that Nicco Marchiol is the starting quarterback.

Ohio has had more than a few cracks at Power Four teams since that 2022 season, where the Bobcats really established themselves as an annual contender in the MAC. However, they are 1-5 in those games, with their only win being a low-scoring 10-7 battle with Iowa State, who had many players sick for that game.

The Mountaineers and Bobcats will kick things off at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday. You'll be able to watch the game live on ESPNU.

What the ESPN FPI says

Change in analytics since initially released

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